# Ventas (VTR)

Sector: Healthcare REIT

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $85.86 |
| Fair value (Analysts) | $94.00 |
| Discount to fair value | 8.7% |
| Fair value uncertainty (Analysts) | Medium |
| Economic moat (Analysts) | None |
| LSEG analyst rating (1 strong buy to 5 strong sell) | 1.91 |
| Data as of | 2026-10-16 |
| Next earnings | 2026-10-27 (confirmed) |

## In short

The market prices Ventas for the risk that senior housing growth slows and that new shares dilute it, and continued fast SHOP growth with accretive investments can close the gap.

## Themes and gap

- Themes: Interest rates (interest-rates)
- Gap type: Can close (closable)
- Why: The Q3 2026 report on October 27, 2026 and the 2027 guidance show whether senior housing growth continues.

## About

Ventas is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns about 1,450 properties in North America and the United Kingdom. More than 900 of them are senior housing communities. In its senior housing operating portfolio (SHOP), Ventas owns the communities and receives their operating income, while other companies manage them. It also owns outpatient medical buildings, research centers and other healthcare facilities, which it leases to tenants. Its headquarters are in Chicago. Debra Cafaro is Chairman and CEO.

## Thesis

The market prices Ventas for the risk that its fast growth in senior housing will slow and that new shares will dilute it. Ventas pays for most of its purchases with new equity. By July 29, 2026, it had settled 31.4 million shares in 2026 for $2.6 billion of gross proceeds, and it had $1.6 billion more of unsettled equity forward sales. It raised its 2026 investment target to $4.5 billion. Senior housing results depend on occupancy and rents, which can fall if new supply returns or labor costs rise. In Q2 2026, SHOP same-store cash NOI grew 16%, average occupancy rose 300 basis points and revenue per occupied room rose 5%. Net debt to further adjusted EBITDA improved to 4.7 times from 5.6 times a year earlier. For the gap to close, three things must be true. SHOP same-store cash NOI must keep double-digit growth into 2027. The $4.5 billion of 2026 investments must earn the returns that management expects and add to normalized FFO per share. Leverage must stay near 4.7 times or lower. The Q3 2026 report on October 27, 2026 gives the first test, and the 2027 guidance in early 2027 shows the growth outlook. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next two to four quarters. The main reason it may not close is a slowdown in senior housing occupancy gains.

## Checkpoints

- Oct 27, 2026: Q3 2026 earnings: SHOP growth. Status: Pending. Watch: SHOP same-store cash NOI growth above 10% and 2026 normalized FFO guidance kept or raised pass; a guidance cut or a large slowdown in occupancy gains fails.
- Feb 2027 (estimate): 2027 guidance. Status: Pending. Watch: 2027 guidance for normalized FFO per share growth with leverage near 4.7 times or lower passes; flat FFO per share or higher leverage fails.

## Balance sheet

- Cash: $199M
- Debt: $12.7B
- Net debt: $12.5B
- Net debt / EBITDA: 4.7× (high)

Ventas funds its business with unsecured notes, mortgage debt, a commercial paper program and new equity. At June 30, 2026, total debt was $12.69 billion and cash was $199 million. Commercial paper was $265 million. Net debt as Ventas defines it, which adds its share of unconsolidated debt and removes partners' share of consolidated debt, was $12.91 billion, and net debt to further adjusted EBITDA was 4.7 times, down from 5.6 times a year earlier. Liquidity was $4.9 billion, which includes availability under its unsecured credit facilities, cash and unsettled equity forward sales. Interest expense was $316 million in the first six months of 2026.

As of 2026-06-30.

Sources:

- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/740260/000074026026000022/q22026earningsrelease.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/740260/000074026026000024/vtr-20260630.htm

## Recent events

- 2026-09-15: Ventas appointed a new Chief Accounting Officer and Controller, who joins from Cushman & Wakefield on or around October 5, 2026. CFO Robert Probst then stops doing the Chief Accounting Officer role on an interim basis.
- 2026-07-29: Ventas reported Q2 2026 results. Normalized FFO per share rose 9% to $0.97. SHOP same-store cash NOI rose 16%, with average occupancy up 300 basis points. Ventas raised its 2026 normalized FFO guidance to $3.85 to $3.90 per share and its 2026 investment target to $4.5 billion.
- 2026-06-15: The General Counsel of Ventas said she will leave on June 26, 2026 to join Blackstone. Kevin Bohl, Deputy General Counsel, took the role on an interim basis.

## Risks

- High: SHOP income depends on occupancy, rents and the costs of the managers that run the communities. New supply, higher labor costs or weak operators can reduce NOI growth quickly.
- Medium: Ventas funds most of its growth with new shares. If the $4.5 billion of 2026 investments earn less than expected, the new shares lower FFO per share.
- Medium: Total debt was $12.69 billion at June 30, 2026. Higher interest rates increase the cost to refinance it and can lower property values.
- Low: Ventas changed its General Counsel and Chief Accounting Officer in 2026. Changes in key roles can slow work for a time.

## Links

- Page: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/company/VTR/
- History of changes: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/company/VTR/history/
- JSON with full history: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/data/company/VTR.json

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