# TransUnion (TRU)

Sector: Credit bureau and data analytics

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $74.08 |
| Fair value (Analysts) | $80.00 |
| Discount to fair value | 7.4% |
| Fair value uncertainty (Analysts) | High |
| Economic moat (Analysts) | Narrow |
| LSEG analyst rating (1 strong buy to 5 strong sell) | 1.96 |
| Data as of | 2026-10-16 |
| Next earnings | 2026-10-27 (confirmed) |

## In short

The market prices TransUnion for changes in US mortgage credit scoring, the credit cycle and its debt, and steady organic growth with lower leverage over three to five quarters can close the gap.

## Themes and gap

- Themes: Regulation and courts (regulation-legal), Interest rates (interest-rates), New management (management-change)
- Gap type: Can close (closable)
- Why: The Q3 2026 report on October 27, 2026 and the 2027 guidance in February 2027 show whether mortgage revenue holds under the new FICO program.

## About

TransUnion is one of the three large US consumer credit bureaus, based in Chicago. It collects credit and other data on consumers and sells credit reports, scores, fraud prevention, marketing and analytics products to lenders, insurers, telecom companies, governments and other businesses. It also sells credit monitoring and identity protection to consumers through its Consumer Interactive business. U.S. Markets were about 76% of revenue in Q2 2026, and International, with credit bureaus in Canada, Latin America, the United Kingdom, Africa, India and Asia Pacific, was the rest. In March 2026, it bought control of Trans Union de México, the largest consumer credit bureau in Mexico. Revenue was $1.31 billion in Q2 2026.

## Thesis

The market prices TransUnion for the risk of changes in the US mortgage credit market, for the credit cycle and for its debt. FICO started a new Mortgage Direct License Program, and TransUnion names it as an uncertainty for its mortgage business, where much of its recent growth came from higher prices. FICO mortgage royalties also lowered the adjusted EBITDA margin to 34.8% in Q2 2026 from 35.7%. Lending volumes depend on interest rates and the economy, and net debt was 2.6 times adjusted EBITDA after the Mexico purchase. Its CFO, Todd Cello, will leave at the end of 2026. Results are strong: in Q2 2026, revenue rose 15%, organic constant currency revenue rose 10% and adjusted EPS rose to $1.23 from $1.08. TransUnion raised its 2026 guidance to 8% to 9% organic growth and adjusted EPS of $4.75 to $4.83. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Organic growth must stay near high single digits as the mortgage rules change. Its new OneTru technology platform must lift margins as migrations finish. Free cash flow must lower leverage and pay for buybacks. The Q3 2026 report on October 27, 2026, is the next test. The 2027 guidance in February 2027 is the main test. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next three to five quarters. The main reason it may not close is a loss of mortgage revenue under the new FICO program.

## Checkpoints

- Oct 27, 2026: Q3 2026 earnings: mortgage and organic growth. Status: Pending. Watch: Organic constant currency growth within the 6% to 8% guidance and adjusted EPS of $1.18 or more pass; a cut to the 2026 guidance fails.
- Feb 2027 (estimate): 2026 results and the 2027 guidance. Status: Pending. Watch: A 2027 outlook with high single digit organic growth and a higher margin passes; guidance that shows mortgage losses from the FICO program fails.

## Balance sheet

- Cash: $839M
- Debt: $5.6B
- Net debt: $4.7B
- EBITDA, last 12 months: $1.8B
- Net debt / EBITDA: 2.6× (medium)
- Undrawn credit line: $479M, to June 2029
- Debt due within 12 months: $213M
- Last debt due: 2031

At June 30, 2026, TransUnion had cash and cash equivalents of $839 million and total debt of $5.59 billion. The debt was mostly senior secured term loans at variable rates: $1.88 billion of Term Loan B-8 and $1.84 billion of Term Loan B-9, both due June 2031, $1.22 billion of Term Loan A-4 due June 2029 and $104.5 million of Term Loan B-5 due November 15, 2026. It had also drawn $520 million on its $1.0 billion revolving credit facility, which ends in June 2029, mostly to pay for Trans Union de México, and $478.7 million remained available. $213.1 million of debt was due within 12 months. Net debt was $4.75 billion, and the leverage ratio was 2.6 times adjusted EBITDA of $1.79 billion for the last 12 months. Cash from operating activities was $459 million in the first half of 2026.

As of 2026-06-30.

Sources:

- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1552033/000155203326000047/tru-20260630.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1552033/000155203326000043/exhibit99106302026.htm

## Recent events

- 2026-10-01: TransUnion said that it will report Q3 2026 results on October 27, 2026.
- 2026-09-19: CFO Todd Cello told TransUnion that he will resign on December 31, 2026, and give transition services until March 1, 2027. TransUnion started a search for a new CFO.
- 2026-07-28: TransUnion reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue rose 15% to $1,310 million, and organic constant currency revenue rose 10%. U.S. Markets revenue rose 11%, with 18% growth in Financial Services, and International organic growth was 6%. Adjusted EBITDA rose 12% to $456 million and adjusted EPS was $1.23. TransUnion raised its 2026 guidance to revenue of $5,127 million to $5,162 million and adjusted EPS of $4.75 to $4.83.
- 2026-04-01: TransUnion bought the mobile division of RealNetworks for about $25.8 million to add to its communications solutions.
- 2026-03-02: TransUnion bought about 68% of Trans Union de México for about $659.7 million in cash, mostly with its revolving credit facility. It later raised its stake to about 95%.

## Risks

- High: FICO's new Mortgage Direct License Program and other changes in US mortgage credit scoring can lower TransUnion's mortgage revenue or margins.
- Medium: Demand for credit reports depends on lending volumes. Higher interest rates or a weaker economy can lower mortgage, card and auto lending activity.
- Medium: TransUnion holds sensitive personal data. A data breach or a regulatory action on consumer data can bring large costs and harm its reputation.
- Low: Total debt was $5.59 billion at June 30, 2026, mostly at variable rates. Higher interest rates raise its interest costs.

## Links

- Page: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/company/TRU/
- History of changes: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/company/TRU/history/
- JSON with full history: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/data/company/TRU.json

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