# Tencent Music (TME) Sector: Music streaming | Field | Value | |---|---| | Price | $8.65 | | Fair value (Analysts) | $24.00 | | Discount to fair value | 64% | | Fair value uncertainty (Analysts) | High | | Economic moat (Analysts) | Narrow | | LSEG analyst rating (1 strong buy to 5 strong sell) | 2.39 | | Data as of | 2026-10-16 | | Next earnings | 2026-11-17 (confirmed) | ## In short The market fears that rival music apps slow Tencent Music's growth while it reports fewer user numbers, and steady membership growth over 2027 can close part of the gap. ## Themes and gap - Themes: China and geopolitics (china-geopolitics), Weak consumer (weak-consumer) - Gap type: Slow (slow) - Why: Competition for light users and the China discount change slowly, so stable membership growth must show over several quarters. ## About Tencent Music Entertainment is a leading music and audio entertainment platform in China. It runs the QQ Music, Kugou Music, Kuwo Music and WeSing apps, and since May 18, 2026 it also owns Ximalaya, a large online audio platform. Tencent is its controlling shareholder. Most revenue comes from music related services: membership fees for music and audio, advertising, concerts and other offline performances, and artist merchandise. A smaller part comes from social entertainment services, such as online karaoke and live streaming, which fell 16% in Q2 2026. In Q2 2026, total revenue was RMB8.93 billion, and membership revenue was RMB4.79 billion. American Depositary Shares trade on the NYSE, and the shares also trade in Hong Kong. ## Thesis The market prices Tencent Music for slower growth from more competition and less transparency. Competing music apps take light users, and Tencent Music said in August 2026 that this competition affected its traffic and casual users. Monthly active users fell 5% in Q4 2025 to 528 million, and from 2026 the company stopped reporting monthly users, paying users and revenue per paying user each quarter. Membership revenue growth slowed to 8.1% in Q2 2026, and this included Ximalaya, while advertising was weak. The stock fell most after the Q4 2025 report in March 2026. Investors also apply a discount to Chinese internet companies. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Membership revenue must keep growing, helped by the SVIP tier and the Ximalaya audio content, with stable growth without Ximalaya. Concerts, merchandise and other IP services must keep growing at double-digit rates without a large fall in margin; management expects a slightly lower gross margin in H2 2026. The company must finish its US$1 billion share buyback and keep its margin. The first test is the Q3 2026 report on November 17, 2026, and the annual paying user number comes with the Q4 report in about March 2027. If membership growth holds, the gap can close slowly over 2027, but competition and the China discount can keep much of it open. ## Checkpoints - Nov 17, 2026: Q3 2026 results: membership growth and margins. Status: Pending. Watch: Membership revenue growth near or above the 8.1% of Q2 2026 and a stable non-IFRS net margin pass; slower membership growth or a sharp margin fall fails. - Mar 2027 (estimate): FY 2026 results and annual paying users. Status: Pending. Watch: Growth in total paying users for 2026 and completion of the US$1 billion buyback pass; a fall in paying users fails. ## Balance sheet - Cash: CN¥44.2B - Debt: CN¥16.5B - Net cash: CN¥27.7B - Debt due within 12 months: CN¥6.0B Tencent Music has more cash than debt. At June 30, 2026, cash, cash equivalents, term deposits and short-term investments were RMB44.22 billion. Debt was RMB5,997 million of current borrowings, RMB7,142 million of non-current borrowings and RMB3,390 million of notes. The company had no bank borrowings at December 31, 2025, so it borrowed in H1 2026, the period of the Ximalaya purchase. In September 2026, it issued US$1,000 million of new notes due 2031 and 2036 to refinance offshore debt and buy back shares. Lease liabilities are not in debt. The company is on track to complete a US$1 billion share buyback. As of 2026-06-30. Sources: - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1744676/000095010326012141/dp251620_ex9901.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1744676/000119312526388222/d127461dex991.htm ## Recent events - 2026-09-10: Tencent Music closed a US$1,000 million bond offering: US$500 million of 5.050% notes due 2031 and US$500 million of 5.650% notes due 2036. It will use the money to refinance offshore debt and to buy back shares. - 2026-08-11: Tencent Music reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue rose 5.8% to RMB8.93 billion, music related services rose 11.0% and membership revenue rose 8.1%. Ximalaya added RMB407 million of revenue. Non-IFRS net profit rose 4.4% to RMB2.69 billion. The company bought back 43.5 million ADSs for about US$400 million and said that competition affected light users and that advertising was weak. - 2026-06-30: Shareholders approved all resolutions at the annual general meeting. - 2026-05-18: Tencent Music completed its purchase of Ximalaya, an online audio platform with audiobooks and podcasts, which it had agreed on June 10, 2025. Ximalaya is now a wholly owned subsidiary. - 2026-05-12: Tencent Music reported Q1 2026 results. Revenue rose 7.3% to RMB7.90 billion, music related services rose 12.2% and membership revenue rose 6.6%. Non-IFRS net profit rose 7.0% to RMB2.27 billion. ## Risks - High: Competition from other music apps takes light users. Monthly active users fell 5% in Q4 2025, and the company now reports paying users only once a year, so investors see less of the trend. - Medium: Chinese regulators restrict exclusive music licenses, so Tencent Music cannot keep rivals away from popular songs. New rules on platforms or content can also raise costs. - Medium: Tencent Music is a Chinese company with US-listed ADSs. Tension between the US and China can affect the listing, and investors pay less for Chinese companies. - Medium: Concerts and merchandise grow fast but have lower margins. Management expects a slightly lower gross margin and net margin in H2 2026, and advertising revenue is weak. - Low: Tencent controls the company and also supplies traffic through Weixin. The interests of Tencent and of minority holders can differ. ## Links - Page: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/company/TME/ - History of changes: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/company/TME/history/ - JSON with full history: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/data/company/TME.json > Picks is a personal record of stock picks. It gives information only, not financial, investment, tax or legal advice. Prices, fair values and ratings can be delayed or wrong; check the original source. Full disclaimer: /disclaimer/.