# Trip.com Group (TCOM)

Sector: Online travel

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $39.93 |
| Fair value (Analysts) | $63.00 |
| Discount to fair value | 36.6% |
| Fair value uncertainty (Analysts) | High |
| Economic moat (Analysts) | Narrow |
| LSEG analyst rating (1 strong buy to 5 strong sell) | 1.89 |
| Data as of | 2026-10-16 |
| Next earnings | 2026-11-17 (estimate) |

## In short

The market fears that China's antitrust rules cut Trip.com's hotel commissions, and steady domestic growth with fast international growth over 2027 can close the gap slowly.

## Themes and gap

- Themes: Regulation and courts (regulation-legal), China and geopolitics (china-geopolitics)
- Gap type: Slow (slow)
- Why: The SAMR case is closed, but the effect of the new hotel rules shows only over several quarters, and country risk stays.

## About

Trip.com Group is a large online travel company. It runs Ctrip in China and Trip.com outside China, and also Skyscanner and Qunar. Travelers book hotels, flights, train tickets, packaged tours and corporate travel on its apps and websites. Trip.com Group earns commissions and fees from hotels, airlines and other partners. In Q2 2026, net revenue was RMB15.7 billion, of which accommodation reservation gave RMB6.6 billion and transportation ticketing gave RMB5.4 billion. Revenue on its international platform grew more than 50% from a year earlier. Its American Depositary Shares trade on the Nasdaq, and its shares also trade in Hong Kong. Each ADS is one ordinary share.

## Thesis

The market prices Trip.com for regulatory risk in China. On January 14, 2026, China's market regulator, the SAMR, opened an antitrust investigation, and the stock fell sharply. On July 25, 2026, the SAMR found that Trip.com had abused its dominant position in online hotel booking, with exclusive deals and lowest-price rules for hotels. It fined Trip.com and took its gains, RMB5.2 billion in total, and ordered it to end these practices. Investors now fear that the new, more open hotel framework lowers Trip.com's commissions and growth in China. Regulators also opened probes into four other travel platforms in September 2026, so the rules for the whole industry can change. High fuel prices and conflict in the Middle East also cut long-haul flights. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Domestic hotel revenue must keep growing under the new framework, after the 8% growth of Q2 2026 without the penalty item. International platform revenue must keep growing fast, above 30%, as it becomes a larger part of revenue. No new penalty or rule must cut its take rate in China. The first test is the Q3 2026 report, expected in about mid-November 2026, and the Q4 report in about February 2027 shows a full quarter under the new rules. The gap can close slowly over 2027, but country risk in China can keep part of it open.

## Checkpoints

- Nov 17, 2026 (estimate): Q3 2026 results: China hotels under the new rules. Status: Pending. Watch: Accommodation revenue that still grows from a year earlier and international revenue growth above 30% pass; a fall in accommodation revenue or a lower margin from lower commissions fails.
- Q4 2026 (estimate): Outcome of the probes into other travel platforms. Status: Pending. Watch: Probes that end with no new industry rule that lowers commissions pass; new rules that cap commissions or rankings for all platforms fail.
- Feb 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results: a full quarter under the new framework. Status: Pending. Watch: Domestic revenue growth and a stable adjusted EBITDA margin pass; falling domestic revenue fails.

## Balance sheet

- Cash: CN¥100.5B
- Debt: CN¥26.4B
- Net cash: CN¥74.1B
- Debt due within 12 months: CN¥25.8B

Trip.com has more cash than debt. At June 30, 2026, cash, restricted cash, short-term investments, held-to-maturity time deposits and financial products were RMB100.5 billion. Short-term debt and the current portion of long-term debt were RMB25.8 billion, and long-term debt was RMB0.6 billion, so most debt is due within 12 months. Short-term debt rose and long-term debt fell from December 31, 2025, when they were RMB19.3 billion and RMB11.4 billion. The SAMR penalty of RMB5.2 billion was recognized in Q2 2026. Trip.com has no credit ratings in its results release.

As of 2026-06-30.

Sources:

- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1269238/000119312526392473/d167816dex991.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1269238/000119312526316761/d256213d6k.htm

## Recent events

- 2026-09-19: Beijing regulators opened investigations into four other online travel and hotel booking platforms, including units of Tongcheng and Meituan, over practices that can hurt competition and merchants. The probes follow a broader review of the online travel sector.
- 2026-09-15: Trip.com reported Q2 2026 results. Net revenue rose 6% to RMB15.7 billion, and international platform revenue rose more than 50%. The SAMR penalty of RMB5.2 billion led to a net loss of RMB2.4 billion, and adjusted EBITDA fell to RMB4.6 billion from RMB4.9 billion. Management expects short-term volatility in China as hotel partners move to the new framework.
- 2026-07-25: The SAMR fined Trip.com RMB3,521 million, 7.5% of its 2025 China revenue, took RMB1,658 million of gains and ordered a refund of RMB122 million of hotel deposits. It found that Trip.com used exclusive arrangements and unreasonable terms against hotels. Trip.com accepted the decision.
- 2026-06-30: Trip.com held its annual general meeting, and shareholders approved all resolutions.
- 2026-06-24: Trip.com reported Q1 2026 results, later than usual while the SAMR investigation continued. In the following days, the ADS price fell toward its lowest level since August 2024.
- 2026-04-30: Law firms announced US securities class actions that allege that Trip.com did not disclose the antitrust risk before the SAMR investigation.

## Risks

- High: Regulation in China can lower Trip.com's commissions. The SAMR ended its exclusive deals and lowest-price rules with hotels in July 2026, and regulators investigate other travel platforms. More rules can cut the take rate and domestic profit.
- Medium: Competition in China is strong. Platforms such as Meituan and Tongcheng also sell hotels and travel, and hotels now have more freedom to use other channels.
- Medium: Travel demand depends on the economy and on events. High fuel prices, conflict in the Middle East and storms cut long-haul flights in 2026, and transportation ticketing revenue fell 1% in Q2 2026.
- Medium: Trip.com is a Chinese company with US-listed ADSs. Tension between the US and China can affect the listing, and investors pay less for Chinese companies.
- Low: US securities class actions allege that Trip.com did not disclose the antitrust risk. Sales and marketing costs also rise as Trip.com grows outside China, up 15% in Q2 2026.

## Links

- Page: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/company/TCOM/
- History of changes: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/company/TCOM/history/
- JSON with full history: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/data/company/TCOM.json

> Picks is a personal record of stock picks. It gives information only, not financial, investment, tax or legal advice. Prices, fair values and ratings can be delayed or wrong; check the original source. Full disclaimer: /disclaimer/.