# Synchrony Financial (SYF)

Sector: Consumer credit cards and financing

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $73.68 |
| Fair value (Analysts) | $90.00 |
| Discount to fair value | 18.1% |
| Fair value uncertainty (Analysts) | High |
| Economic moat (Analysts) | None |
| LSEG analyst rating (1 strong buy to 5 strong sell) | 2.17 |
| Data as of | 2026-10-16 |
| Next earnings | 2026-10-20 (confirmed) |

## In short

The market prices Synchrony for the risk of higher card loan losses and its dependence on a few large partners, and stable credit with faster loan growth over three to five quarters can close the gap.

## Themes and gap

- Themes: Weak consumer (weak-consumer), Interest rates (interest-rates), Regulation and courts (regulation-legal)
- Gap type: Can close (closable)
- Why: The Q3 2026 report on October 20, 2026 and the 2027 outlook in January 2027 show whether card loan losses stay low as loans grow.

## About

Synchrony Financial is a US consumer financing company based in Stamford, Connecticut. It issues private label and co-branded credit cards, installment loans and pay later products through partners, and it funds itself mostly with deposits at Synchrony Bank. It has five sales platforms: Home & Auto, Digital, Diversified & Value, Health & Wellness (including CareCredit) and Lifestyle. Its five largest programs in 2025 were Amazon, Lowe's, PayPal, Sam's Club and TJX, which together gave 54% of its interest and fees on loans. In September 2025, it launched a credit card program at Walmart with OnePay. At June 30, 2026, loan receivables were $102.2 billion and deposits were $82.8 billion. Most of its income is interest on card balances, less credit losses and payments to partners under retailer share arrangements.

## Thesis

The market prices Synchrony for the risk of higher credit losses on its card loans to consumers and for its dependence on a few large partners. Its customers include many lower-income and middle-income households, so a weaker job market can raise loan losses quickly. Five partners gave 54% of its interest and fees on loans in 2025, and the loss of one large program would lower earnings. Recent results are good: in Q2 2026, purchase volume rose 8% to a record $49.8 billion, the net charge-off rate fell to 5.43% and the net interest margin rose to 15.08%. Diluted EPS was $2.59, and Synchrony returned $950 million to shareholders. For the gap to close, three things must be true. The net charge-off rate must stay near or below its long-term target range as loan growth speeds up. Loan receivables must grow faster than the 2% of Q2 2026 with the new Walmart and Lowe's programs. The CET1 ratio of 13.2% must support steady buybacks. The Q3 2026 report on October 20, 2026, is the next test. The Q4 report and the 2027 outlook in January 2027 are the main test. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next three to five quarters. The main reason it may not close is a rise in unemployment, which would raise loan losses.

## Checkpoints

- Oct 20, 2026: Q3 2026 earnings: credit and loan growth. Status: Pending. Watch: A stable or lower net charge-off rate and faster loan receivables growth pass; a rise in delinquencies or a reserve build fails.
- Jan 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and the 2027 outlook. Status: Pending. Watch: A 2027 outlook with loan growth and net charge-offs within the long-term target range passes; guidance for higher losses fails.

## Balance sheet

Synchrony funds itself mostly with deposits. At June 30, 2026, total assets were $121.9 billion and deposits were $82.8 billion, 83% of its funding. Borrowings were $16.4 billion: $8.9 billion of securitized financings and $7.5 billion of senior and subordinated unsecured notes. Cash and equivalents were $16.2 billion, and total liquid assets were $19.8 billion, or 16.2% of total assets. Loan receivables were $102.2 billion, with an allowance for credit losses of $10.3 billion, or 10.09% of loans. Total equity was $16.9 billion. The estimated CET1 ratio was 13.2% and the Tier 1 capital ratio was 14.9%. Book value per share was $46.67 and tangible book value per share was $42.01. The remaining share buyback authorization was $5.7 billion.

As of 2026-06-30.

Sources:

- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1601712/000160171226000030/earningsrelease2q26.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1601712/000160171226000030/financialtables2q26.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1601712/000160171226000033/syf-20260630.htm

## Recent events

- 2026-09-22: Synchrony said that it will report Q3 2026 results on October 20, 2026.
- 2026-07-31: Synchrony issued $600 million of 5.450% fixed-to-floating rate senior notes due 2030 and $500 million of 6.276% fixed-to-floating rate senior notes due 2037.
- 2026-07-21: Synchrony reported Q2 2026 results. Net earnings were $885 million, or $2.59 per diluted share, compared with $2.50 a year earlier. Purchase volume rose 8% to a record $49.8 billion and loan receivables rose 2% to $102.2 billion. The net charge-off rate fell to 5.43% and loans 30 or more days past due were 4.16%. The net interest margin rose to 15.08%. Synchrony returned $950 million to shareholders, including $850 million of buybacks.
- 2026-06-29: Synchrony named Carol Juel CEO of its Digital platform, after Bart Schaller announced plans to retire. It also made other changes in its technology and operations leadership.
- 2026-06-05: Synchrony issued $500 million of 7.250% Series C fixed rate reset preferred stock.

## Risks

- High: Most of Synchrony's loans are unsecured card balances to consumers. Higher unemployment or high inflation can raise delinquencies and loan losses. Loans 30 or more days past due were 4.16% at June 30, 2026.
- Medium: Five programs gave 54% of interest and fees on loans in 2025. If a large partner ends or changes its program, or asks for a larger share of income, earnings can fall.
- Medium: Synchrony is a regulated bank holding company. New rules on card fees, interest rates or capital can lower its income or limit buybacks.
- Low: Large banks, card networks and pay later companies compete for the same partners and customers.

## Links

- Page: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/company/SYF/
- History of changes: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/company/SYF/history/
- JSON with full history: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/data/company/SYF.json

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