# S&P Global (SPGI)

Sector: Credit ratings & financial data

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $407.82 |
| Fair value (Analysts) | $525.00 |
| Discount to fair value | 22.3% |
| Fair value uncertainty (Analysts) | Medium |
| Economic moat (Analysts) | Wide |
| LSEG analyst rating (1 strong buy to 5 strong sell) | 1.86 |
| Data as of | 2026-10-12 |
| Next earnings | 2026-10-27 (confirmed) |

## In short

Investors doubt that the jump in AI-related bond ratings will last, and steady issuance and private credit ratings over the next two to four quarters can close the gap.

## Themes and gap

- Themes: AI supplier (ai-supplier), Interest rates (interest-rates)
- Gap type: Can close (closable)
- Why: Year-end issuance data and the next quarters show whether AI-related bond issuance and private credit ratings continue.

## About

S&P Global rates the credit of companies and governments. It also runs S&P Dow Jones Indices, home of the S&P 500. Investment funds pay licensing fees to track these indices. Companies and banks pay S&P Global to rate the bonds and loans they issue.

## Thesis

Some investors think that the recent growth of S&P Global is unusually high and will not last. In the second quarter of 2026, Ratings revenue grew 17%. Management said that much of this growth came from debt for AI data centers and from merger financing. This kind of issuance can slow when AI spending slows. Other investors think that private lenders will stop using public credit ratings as private credit grows. S&P Global answers this worry with growth in private markets: in the second quarter of 2026, Ratings revenue from private markets grew 60%. The Indices business gives a second source of growth. ETFs that track S&P indices held $6.35 trillion at June 30, 2026, and Indices fees move with fund assets more than with bond issuance. For the gap to close, debt issuance by hyperscalers, the largest cloud computing companies, must stay near the $250 to $300 billion that management assumes for 2026. Private credit deals must also continue to use public ratings. The third quarter results on October 27, 2026 and the issuance data through the end of 2026 will show if the 2026 growth was a temporary peak or a lasting change. If issuance stays high and private credit continues to use ratings, the gap can close over the next two to four quarters. If AI debt issuance falls sharply, growth can go back to its usual rate.

## Checkpoints

- Oct 27, 2026: Q3 2026 earnings: Ratings growth and AI debt issuance. Status: Pending. Watch: Ratings revenue growth that stays strong with hyperscaler issuance near the $250 to $300 billion forecast pass; a sharp drop in issuance-driven revenue fails.
- Feb 2027 (estimate): Full-year 2026 results and 2027 guidance. Status: Pending. Watch: 2027 guidance for Ratings growth above its historical pace and leverage on a path back to 2.0 to 2.5 times pass; guidance that assumes a fall in issuance fails.
- Apr 2027 (estimate): Q1 2027 earnings: private credit ratings and Indices flows. Status: Pending. Watch: Growth in private credit ratings and in Indices fees from ETF assets pass; a fall in Ratings revenue as private lenders skip public ratings fails.

## Balance sheet

- Cash: $4.1B
- Debt: $15.2B
- Net debt: $11.1B
- Interest cover: 24×
- Undrawn credit line: $2.0B, to December 2029
- Last debt due: 2062
- Ratings: Moody's A3 (stable outlook)

S&P Global funds itself with cash from its ratings, index and data businesses, and with unsecured notes that the parent company issues and its ratings subsidiary guarantees. Management plans buybacks of more than $7 billion in 2026 and expects leverage to rise above its target before it falls in 2027. At June 30, 2026, debt of $15.2 billion was fixed-rate notes due from 2027, plus $825 million of commercial paper. Notes of $1.7 billion are due in 2027. Of this debt, $2.0 billion was Mobility Global notes, which left with Mobility at the July 1, 2026 spin-off. Without them, debt was about $13.2 billion. At the spin-off, Mobility paid S&P Global a net cash distribution of $1.97 billion, and S&P Global kept it. Interest cover is first half 2026 operating profit plus depreciation and amortization of $4.4 billion over net interest expense of $182 million. This profit includes a gain of $186 million from a sale and the profit of Mobility. The undrawn $2.0 billion credit line backs the commercial paper and ends on December 17, 2029. Moody's last affirmed its rating in 2022, after the IHS Markit merger. The balance sheet also carries $5.0 billion of redeemable noncontrolling interest for CME Group's 27% share of S&P Dow Jones Indices. At any time, CME can make S&P Global buy at least 20% of that share at fair value. CME can make S&P Global buy all of it after a change of control. This is a possible cash call that does not show as debt. Until October 5, 2026, S&P Global filed no new note issue and no new buyback agreement after June 30. The buyback plan is about five times the $1.5 billion bought in the first half. Reports of the Q2 earnings call said management expects to borrow about $2 billion more to pay for the buybacks. The same reports said management expects gross leverage of 2.7 to 2.8 times EBITDA at year end, above its 2.0 to 2.5 times target.

As of 2026-06-30.

Sources:

- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000064040/000006404026000045/spgi-20260630.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000006404026000040/spgi2q2026-earningsrelease.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64040/000110465926080571/tm2619099d2_ex99-2.htm
- https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-sp-global-q2-2026-profit-miss-weighs-on-shares-93CH-4817134
- https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/sp-global-q2-2026-slides-show-strength-but-results-disappoint-93CH-4817187
- https://finance.yahoo.com/news/p-global-inc-moodys-affirms-224907437.html

## Recent events

- 2026-09-29: Cboe and S&P Dow Jones Indices signed a 25-year extension of their exclusive license for S&P 500 index options, through 2051.
- 2026-09-17: S&P Global agreed to buy OpenZeppelin, a company that secures onchain (blockchain) finance code. Terms were not disclosed, and the deal is not expected to have a material financial impact. OpenZeppelin will operate under its own name inside S&P Global Ratings.
- 2026-09-14: S&P Global, through S&P Global Ventures, led an investment that increased the Series B round of digital-asset data company Kaiko to $110 million. The investment is part of a wider partnership between the two companies.
- 2026-09-01: Bloomberg reported that S&P Global is at an early stage of a study to spin off Capital IQ Pro, its main data platform. People familiar with the plan said the unit can have a value of high single-digit billions of dollars. S&P Global did not announce a plan, and it can decide not to do it.
- 2026-07-28: S&P Global reported second quarter revenue of $4.15 billion, up 10%. This figure includes Mobility. Without Mobility, revenue grew 11%, and adjusted earnings per share grew 23% to $4.83. Ratings revenue grew 17%, and Indices revenue grew 20%. The company kept its plan to buy back more than $7 billion of shares in 2026.
- 2026-07-01: S&P Global completed the spin-off of Mobility Global Inc., which began trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker MBGL.
- 2026-05-20: The board of S&P Global approved a plan to spin off the Mobility division into an independent public company.

## Risks

- High: Much of the recent growth in Ratings comes from debt for AI data centers. On the Q2 2026 call, management increased its assumption for hyperscaler debt issuance in 2026 from about $200 billion to $250 to $300 billion. If AI infrastructure spending slows, this issuance and Ratings revenue can fall sharply.
- Medium: S&P Global plans to increase its debt for a time to buy back more than $7 billion of shares in 2026. Reports of the Q2 earnings call said management expects gross leverage of 2.7 to 2.8 times EBITDA at the end of 2026. This is above the company's normal target of 2.0 to 2.5 times, and management expects to be in that range again by the end of 2027.
- Medium: S&P Global Ratings research said private credit lenders gave about $146 billion in 2025 to borrowers rated B- and below. Broadly syndicated loans gave about $85 billion to the same group. Many private credit deals do not need a public credit rating, which can limit the market for Ratings over time.
- Low: S&P Global completed the spin-off of its Mobility division in July 2026. The remaining company now has less revenue diversification and must absorb the standalone costs of operating without that business.

## Links

- Page: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/company/SPGI/
- History of changes: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/company/SPGI/history/
- JSON with full history: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/data/company/SPGI.json

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