# Restaurant Brands International (QSR)

Sector: Restaurants

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | CA$105.86 |
| Fair value (Analysts) | CA$114.00 |
| Discount to fair value | 7.1% |
| Fair value uncertainty (Analysts) | Medium |
| Economic moat (Analysts) | Narrow |
| LSEG analyst rating (1 strong buy to 5 strong sell) | 2.24 |
| Data as of | 2026-10-16 |
| Next earnings | 2026-10-29 (confirmed) |

## In short

The market prices Restaurant Brands for high debt and weak Popeyes sales, and steady comparable sales growth with falling leverage over the next four to six quarters can close the gap.

## Themes and gap

- Themes: High debt (leverage), Weak consumer (weak-consumer)
- Gap type: Can close (closable)
- Why: The Q3 2026 report on October 29, 2026 and the full-year report in February 2027 show whether comparable sales, the 8% growth target and lower leverage hold.

## About

Restaurant Brands International (RBI) is one of the largest quick service restaurant companies in the world. It owns four brands: Tim Hortons, Burger King, Popeyes and Firehouse Subs. At June 30, 2026, the system had 33,156 restaurants in more than 120 countries and territories, and more than 95% of them were franchised. System-wide sales were nearly $49 billion a year. RBI earns mostly royalties, rent and supply chain sales from its franchisees, so its revenue follows the sales of the restaurants. It reports five franchisor segments (Tim Hortons, Burger King, Popeyes and Firehouse Subs in the U.S. and Canada, and International) and a Restaurant Holdings segment. Restaurant Holdings holds the Burger King restaurants that RBI bought with Carrols in 2024, which it plans to sell to franchisees, and the start-up businesses of Popeyes China and Firehouse Subs Brazil. RBI is a Canadian company with its main offices in Miami, and it trades on the NYSE and the TSX.

## Thesis

The market prices RBI for its high debt, weak sales at Popeyes in the U.S. and slow growth at Tim Hortons in Canada. Net debt was $12.5 billion at June 30, 2026, or 4.1 times adjusted EBITDA, and RBI expects adjusted interest expense of $500 million to $520 million in 2026. Popeyes U.S. comparable sales fell 5.2% in Q2 2026, and Tim Hortons Canada comparable sales rose only 0.1%. 3G Capital, the largest holder, also continues to exchange units, which can add selling pressure. For the gap to close, three things must be true. RBI must keep consolidated comparable sales growth of 3% or more and organic adjusted operating income growth of 8% or more, its targets from 2024 to 2028. Popeyes U.S. sales must stop falling. Net leverage must keep falling from 4.1 times, as free cash flow of $1.63 billion over the 12 months to June 30, 2026 pays for dividends, buybacks and debt repayment. The Q3 2026 report on October 29, 2026, gives the first test. The full-year report in February 2027 shows whether RBI met its 8% organic growth target for 2026. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main reason it may not close is a weaker consumer in the U.S. and Canada, which can slow sales at all four brands.

## Checkpoints

- Oct 29, 2026: Q3 2026 results: comparable sales and Popeyes. Status: Pending. Watch: Consolidated comparable sales growth of 3% or more, a smaller fall at Popeyes U.S. and the 8% organic growth target kept pass; a fall in comparable sales growth below 2% or a lower target fails.
- Feb 2027 (estimate): Full-year 2026 results: growth target and leverage. Status: Pending. Watch: Organic adjusted operating income growth of 8% or more for 2026 and net leverage below 4.1 times pass; a miss on the growth target or higher leverage fails.

## Balance sheet

- Cash: $1.1B
- Debt: $13.3B
- Net debt: $12.3B
- EBITDA, last 12 months: $3.1B
- Net debt / EBITDA: 4.0× (medium)
- Interest cover: 5.4×
- Undrawn credit line: $1.2B
- Debt due within 12 months: $48M
- Last debt due: 2030

RBI funds itself with secured term loans and senior notes. At June 30, 2026, debt principal was $13.33 billion: Term Loan B of $4.46 billion due 2030, Term Loan A of $1.23 billion due 2028, $4.0 billion of first lien notes due 2028 and 2029, and $3.65 billion of second lien notes due 2028 and 2030. Finance leases added $0.28 billion, and RBI reports total debt of $13.61 billion and net debt of $12.55 billion. Cash was $1.06 billion. Net leverage was 4.1 times adjusted EBITDA of $3.08 billion over the 12 months to June 30, 2026, down from 4.6 times a year earlier. RBI had $1.25 billion available under its revolving credit facility. Interest cover is income from operations divided by net interest expense for the first half of 2026. Free cash flow was $1.63 billion over the 12 months to June 30, 2026. The debt is rated below investment grade, and RBI names a path to investment grade as a goal.

As of 2026-06-30.

Sources:

- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1618756/000161875626000041/qsr_2026630xpressrelease.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1618756/000161875626000045/qsr-20260630.htm

## Recent events

- 2026-09-15: RBI said it will report Q3 2026 results on October 29, 2026.
- 2026-08-10: RBI received a notice from 3G Restaurant Brands Holdings, an affiliate of 3G Capital, to exchange 2,784,549 exchangeable units. RBI said it will buy back the units for cash on hand on August 31, 2026, at the 20-day average NYSE price. After the exchange, 3G holds about 21% of the fully diluted shares.
- 2026-08-06: RBI reported Q2 2026 results. System-wide sales grew 6.4% and comparable sales grew 3.8%, with 8.5% at Burger King U.S. and 5.5% at International. Popeyes U.S. comparable sales fell 5.2%. Adjusted EPS rose 12.9% to $1.07, and adjusted operating income rose 6.7% on an organic basis. RBI returned $435 million to shareholders and said it remains on track for 8% organic adjusted operating income growth in 2026.
- 2026-05-06: RBI reported Q1 2026 results. Comparable sales grew 3.2%, and Tim Hortons and International had their 20th quarter in a row of positive comparable sales. RBI started share repurchases again in March and expects to buy back $500 million of shares in 2026.
- 2026-01-30: RBI formed a joint venture for Burger King China with a fund managed by CPE, which invested $350 million of new capital. RBI keeps a 17% interest and earns royalties from the restaurants.

## Risks

- High: Debt was $13.3 billion at June 30, 2026, and net leverage was 4.1 times adjusted EBITDA. About $5.7 billion of term loans have floating rates, part of which is hedged with swaps to October 2028. Higher rates or lower earnings make the debt harder to carry and limit buybacks.
- Medium: Popeyes U.S. comparable sales fell 5.8% in the first half of 2026. If the brand does not recover, franchisees open fewer restaurants and royalty growth slows.
- Medium: Tim Hortons in Canada gives a large part of the profit, and its comparable sales grew only 0.1% in Q2 2026. A weak Canadian consumer or higher coffee costs can lower its profit.
- Low: 3G Capital held about 21% of the fully diluted shares after the August 2026 exchange. More exchanges or share sales by 3G can add selling pressure on the stock.

## Links

- Page: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/company/QSR/
- History of changes: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/company/QSR/history/
- JSON with full history: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/data/company/QSR.json

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