# Nexstar Media Group (NXST)

Sector: Television broadcasting

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $164.59 |
| Fair value (Analysts) | $205.00 |
| Discount to fair value | 19.7% |
| Fair value uncertainty (Analysts) | High |
| Economic moat (Analysts) | None |
| LSEG analyst rating (1 strong buy to 5 strong sell) | 1.75 |
| Data as of | 2026-10-16 |
| Next earnings | 2026-11-06 (estimate) |

## In short

The market prices Nexstar for the lawsuit against its TEGNA purchase and its higher debt, and a court result that lets it combine TEGNA with steady debt repayment over the next six to eight quarters can close the gap.

## Themes and gap

- Themes: Regulation and courts (regulation-legal), High debt (leverage)
- Gap type: Can close (closable)
- Why: The Ninth Circuit hearing in Q4 2026 and the antitrust trial on July 6, 2027 decide whether Nexstar can combine TEGNA.

## About

Nexstar Media Group owns and operates local television stations across the United States, most of them affiliated with the big networks, such as CBS, FOX, NBC and ABC. It also owns The CW network and the cable news network NewsNation, and it runs digital and streaming businesses. Nexstar earns money in two main ways. Cable, satellite and streaming TV providers pay distribution fees to carry its stations, and advertisers buy time on its stations and networks. Political advertising adds much revenue in even years with elections. On March 19, 2026, Nexstar bought TEGNA, another large station owner, for $22.00 per TEGNA share in cash. A court order requires Nexstar to hold TEGNA separate while a lawsuit against the deal continues.

## Thesis

The market prices Nexstar for the lawsuit against its TEGNA purchase and for the debt it took on to pay for it. After the deal closed on March 19, 2026, DIRECTV and several State Attorneys General sued under the antitrust laws. A federal court in California ordered on April 17, 2026 that Nexstar and TEGNA stay separate until the case ends, and the trial is set for July 6, 2027. While the order lasts, Nexstar cannot get the cost savings it expected from the deal. Total debt rose to $11.7 billion at June 30, 2026 from $6.3 billion at the end of 2025, and the total net leverage ratio was 4.22 times without the synergies. Investors also expect fewer subscribers to pay for traditional TV over time, which reduces distribution fees. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Nexstar must win in court, or the Ninth Circuit must narrow the order, so that it can combine TEGNA and get the savings. It must use its free cash flow, which is usually strongest in election years, to pay down debt. Distribution revenue must hold up as fees rise and streaming TV subscribers grow. The Q3 2026 report, estimated for about November 6, 2026, shows the political advertising from the 2026 elections and the debt repayment. The Ninth Circuit hearing is expected in Q4 2026, and the trial is in July 2027. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next six to eight quarters. The main reason it may not close is a loss in court, which can force Nexstar to sell stations or keep TEGNA apart.

## Checkpoints

- Nov 6, 2026 (estimate): Q3 2026 earnings: political revenue and debt repayment. Status: Pending. Watch: Strong political advertising and more debt repayment that lowers the total net leverage ratio below 4.22 times pass; a higher leverage ratio fails.
- Q4 2026 (estimate): Ninth Circuit hearing on the TEGNA injunction. Status: Pending. Watch: A ruling that narrows the injunction or dismisses the State plaintiffs passes; a ruling that keeps the full injunction fails.
- Jul 6, 2027: Antitrust trial on the TEGNA purchase. Status: Pending. Watch: A ruling for Nexstar, or a settlement that keeps most of TEGNA, passes; an order to undo the deal or to sell many stations fails.

## Balance sheet

- Cash: $218M
- Debt: $11.7B
- Net debt: $11.5B
- Net debt / EBITDA: 4.2× (high)
- Interest cover: 2.0×

Nexstar funds its business with secured credit facilities, secured notes and unsecured notes. Total debt, including Mission Broadcasting, rose to $11.74 billion at June 30, 2026 from $6.33 billion at December 31, 2025, because of the TEGNA purchase. It was $5.19 billion of secured credit facilities, $3.80 billion of secured notes, which include TEGNA notes that are being secured, and $2.76 billion of unsecured notes. Cash was $218 million. The first lien net leverage ratio was 3.21 times against a covenant limit of 4.75 times, and the total net leverage ratio was 4.22 times. Since Q2 2026, these ratios leave out the TEGNA synergies because of the court order. In April 2026, Nexstar refinanced $1,714 million of notes due in July 2027 with new notes due 2034. Interest cover is income from operations divided by net interest expense for the first half of 2026.

As of 2026-06-30.

Sources:

- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1142417/000119312526336678/nxst-ex99_1.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1142417/000119312526339827/nxst-20260630.htm

## Recent events

- 2026-08-06: Nexstar reported Q2 2026 results. Net revenue was a record $1.99 billion, up 62%, with $697 million of revenue from TEGNA. Net income was $113 million and adjusted EBITDA was $633 million. Adjusted free cash flow was $238 million. Nexstar repaid $409 million of debt and paid $57 million in dividends in the quarter. The FCC was scheduled to vote on the same day on a proposal to repeal the national ownership cap for TV stations.
- 2026-07-31: Nexstar declared a quarterly dividend of $1.86 per share, paid on August 28, 2026.
- 2026-07-09: The D.C. Circuit rejected all of the challenges to the FCC Media Bureau's order that approved Nexstar's purchase of TEGNA. The antitrust lawsuit in California is separate, and its trial is set for July 6, 2027.
- 2026-04-17: The U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of California issued a preliminary injunction in the lawsuit by DIRECTV and several State Attorneys General. Nexstar and TEGNA must stay separate while the case continues. Nexstar appealed to the Ninth Circuit to narrow the order.
- 2026-04-02: Nexstar issued $1,725 million of senior unsecured notes due 2034 to refinance $1,714 million of notes due in July 2027.
- 2026-03-19: Nexstar completed its purchase of TEGNA after it received approvals from the FCC and the Department of Justice. TEGNA shareholders received $22.00 per share in cash.

## Risks

- High: The antitrust lawsuit against the TEGNA purchase can end with an order to sell stations or to undo parts of the deal. Until the trial in July 2027, the court order keeps TEGNA separate and blocks the expected cost savings.
- High: Total debt was $11.7 billion at June 30, 2026, and the total net leverage ratio was 4.22 times. Interest expense rose to $190 million in Q2 2026 from $97 million a year earlier. Lower cash flow or higher rates make the debt harder to pay down.
- Medium: Fewer homes pay for cable and satellite TV each year. Distribution fees can fall if subscriber losses are larger than fee increases and streaming TV growth.
- Medium: Advertising revenue is cyclical and depends on elections. Political advertising is much lower in odd years such as 2027, so revenue and free cash flow fall after the 2026 elections.

## Links

- Page: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/company/NXST/
- History of changes: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/company/NXST/history/
- JSON with full history: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/data/company/NXST.json

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