# Las Vegas Sands (LVS)

Sector: Casinos & resorts

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $38.32 |
| Fair value (Analysts) | $56.00 |
| Discount to fair value | 31.6% |
| Fair value uncertainty (Analysts) | High |
| Economic moat (Analysts) | Narrow |
| LSEG analyst rating (1 strong buy to 5 strong sell) | 2.18 |
| Data as of | 2026-10-16 |
| Next earnings | 2026-10-21 (confirmed) |

## In short

Weaker Macao profits and high debt hold Las Vegas Sands back, and a Macao recovery with steady Singapore results over four to six quarters can close the gap.

## Themes and gap

- Themes: China and geopolitics (china-geopolitics), Weak consumer (weak-consumer), High debt (leverage)
- Gap type: Can close (closable)
- Why: The next two quarterly reports show whether the Q2 2026 fall in Macao profits was mostly low hold or a lasting decline.

## About

Las Vegas Sands builds and runs large integrated resorts in Asia. It owns Marina Bay Sands in Singapore and, through its majority stake in Sands China, The Venetian Macao, The Londoner Macao, The Parisian Macao, The Plaza and Four Seasons Macao, and Sands Macao. It sold its Las Vegas properties earlier and has no US resorts. Most revenue comes from casino gaming, and the resorts also earn money from hotel rooms, malls, food, shows and conventions. In Q2 2026, the Macao resorts had $1.79 billion of net revenue and Marina Bay Sands had $1.38 billion. Las Vegas Sands operates in Macao under a 10-year concession that ends on December 31, 2032, and it is building a second hotel tower and casino at Marina Bay Sands, which it expects to open in January 2031. Miriam Adelson and related trusts control about 60% of the shares.

## Thesis

The market prices Las Vegas Sands for a weaker Macao business and high capital needs. In Q2 2026, adjusted property EBITDA in Macao fell to $430 million from $566 million, and The Venetian Macao and The Plaza Macao earned much less, partly because of unusually low hold in rolling play. Investors fear that Macao profits stay lower because of competition and slower spending by visitors from mainland China. At the same time, Las Vegas Sands has about $15.3 billion of debt, it builds the large Marina Bay Sands expansion, and it uses much of its cash for share buybacks. Policy in China and Macao adds a risk that investors find hard to measure. For the gap to close, Macao adjusted property EBITDA must return to near the $633 million of Q1 2026 with normal hold, Marina Bay Sands must keep its EBITDA near $700 million per quarter, and the expansion must stay on budget. The buybacks under the new $6.0 billion authorization must also not raise debt too much. The Q3 2026 report on October 21, 2026, and the Q4 report in about late January 2027 show whether the Q2 fall in Macao was mostly bad luck. If Macao recovers, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. A lasting fall in Macao spending or a policy change can keep it open.

## Checkpoints

- Oct 21, 2026: Q3 2026 results: Macao recovery. Status: Pending. Watch: Macao adjusted property EBITDA back above $500 million with Marina Bay Sands near $700 million passes; another quarter near or below $430 million in Macao fails.
- Jan 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results: Macao margins and leverage. Status: Pending. Watch: Stable Macao margins and buybacks paid mostly from cash flow pass; falling Macao profits with rising debt fail.

## Balance sheet

- Cash: $3.4B
- Debt: $15.3B
- Net debt: $11.9B
- Interest cover: 4.0×
- Undrawn credit line: $4.3B
- Debt due within 12 months: $1.6B

Debt is the principal at June 30, 2026, $15,252 million, without $150 million of finance leases. About $5.00 billion is Las Vegas Sands Corp. senior notes, about $6.31 billion is at Sands China, mostly senior notes and a term loan in Hong Kong dollars, and about $3.95 billion is Singapore term loans for Marina Bay Sands. Due within 12 months is the current maturities that the filing states, which include $700 million of Sands China notes due March 2027 and $750 million of notes due June 2027. In May 2026, Las Vegas Sands received $1.26 billion when the buyer of its Las Vegas properties repaid its seller loan. Undrawn credit is the $4.26 billion available under the US, Sands China and Singapore revolving credit facilities; another $4.68 billion of a delayed draw term loan is only for the Marina Bay Sands expansion. Interest cover is operating income divided by interest expense for the first half of 2026. In the first half of 2026, the company used $1.54 billion for share buybacks.

As of 2026-06-30.

Sources:

- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1300514/000130051426000085/lvs-20260630.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1300514/000130051426000078/lvs_ex991x06302026.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1300514/000130051426000070/lvs-20260513.htm

## Recent events

- 2026-10-14: Las Vegas Sands said that it will report Q3 2026 results on October 21, 2026, after the market closes.
- 2026-07-22: Las Vegas Sands reported Q2 2026 results. Net revenue was $3.15 billion, compared to $3.18 billion a year earlier, and diluted EPS was $0.53. Adjusted property EBITDA fell to $1.12 billion from $1.33 billion: Macao fell to $430 million and Marina Bay Sands fell to $689 million. The CEO said that unusually low hold in rolling play hurt the Macao results. The company bought back $787 million of shares.
- 2026-07-21: The Board increased the remaining share buyback authorization to $6.0 billion and extended it to July 21, 2029.
- 2026-05-13: Las Vegas Sands issued $500 million of 5.300% senior notes due 2031 and $500 million of 5.650% senior notes due 2033. It used the money and cash on hand to redeem its $1.0 billion of 3.500% notes due August 2026.
- 2026-04-22: Las Vegas Sands reported Q1 2026 results. Net revenue rose 25.3% to $3.59 billion, diluted EPS rose 73.5% to $0.85, and adjusted property EBITDA rose 24.6% to $1.42 billion. It bought back $740 million of shares.

## Risks

- High: Macao gave $1.79 billion of the $3.15 billion of net revenue in Q2 2026. Slower spending by visitors from mainland China, more competition or changes to Macao's gaming laws can cut profits.
- Medium: Debt is about $15.3 billion, and the Marina Bay Sands expansion needs large spending through 2030. If cash flow falls while buybacks continue, leverage rises.
- Medium: The Macao concession ends on December 31, 2032, and the Singapore development agreement requires completion of the expansion by July 8, 2029. The company expects to finish in June 2030, so it needs the Singapore government to approve an extension.
- Medium: Win rates change results from quarter to quarter. Low hold in rolling play cut Macao profits in Q2 2026.
- Low: Miriam Adelson and related trusts control about 60% of the shares, so other shareholders have little influence on decisions.

## Links

- Page: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/company/LVS/
- History of changes: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/company/LVS/history/
- JSON with full history: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/data/company/LVS.json

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