# Global Payments (GPN)

Sector: Payment processing

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $84.17 |
| Fair value (Analysts) | $131.00 |
| Discount to fair value | 35.7% |
| Fair value uncertainty (Analysts) | High |
| Economic moat (Analysts) | Narrow |
| LSEG analyst rating (1 strong buy to 5 strong sell) | 2.37 |
| Data as of | 2026-10-16 |
| Next earnings | 2026-11-05 (estimate) |

## In short

The market doubts Global Payments can grow in a crowded market after the debt-funded Worldpay deal, and steady growth with higher margins over the next four to six quarters can close the gap.

## Themes and gap

- Themes: High debt (leverage), Weak consumer (weak-consumer)
- Gap type: Can close (closable)
- Why: Quarterly normalized growth, margin gains from the Worldpay integration and the capital return through 2027 give dated checks.

## About

Global Payments processes card payments for merchants of all sizes in more than 175 countries. On January 9, 2026, it bought Worldpay from FIS and GTCR and sold its Issuer Solutions business, which served card issuers, to FIS. It is now a pure merchant business with three segments. SMB serves small and mid-size businesses with payments and point-of-sale software, including its Genius platform. Enterprise serves large merchants, mostly through Worldpay. Platforms sells payments through software companies that embed them in their products. Global Payments earns fees on each transaction it processes and fees for software and hardware. In Q2 2026, GAAP revenue was $3.32 billion: $1.65 billion from SMB, $838 million from Enterprise and $653 million from Platforms.

## Thesis

The market doubts that the new Global Payments can grow faster than a slow, crowded market. Merchant payment processing faces strong competitors in small business point-of-sale software and in online payments, and investors fear that price competition keeps growth low. Normalized adjusted net revenue grew only about 4% in Q2 2026, and in August 2026 the company cut its 2026 outlook to growth of about 4% to 5% and adjusted EPS of $13.60 to $13.80, because the conflict in the Middle East hurt its travel business. The Worldpay purchase also adds integration risk and debt: long-term debt was $22.4 billion at June 30, 2026. GAAP results are much lower than adjusted results, because of deal costs and the amortization of acquired intangibles. For the gap to close, four things must be true. Normalized revenue growth must stay at about 4% to 5% or improve in 2027. Normalized adjusted operating margin must expand by about 150 basis points in 2026, as guided, which shows that the Worldpay integration saves costs. Genius must keep winning merchants in SMB. The company must return more than $2 billion of capital in 2026 and about $7.5 billion from 2025 to 2027, while it keeps its leverage within its covenants. The Q3 2026 report, expected in early November 2026, and the full-year report and 2027 outlook in about February 2027 give the evidence. If growth and margins hold, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. If growth stays near the low end, the market can keep the stock at a low multiple for longer.

## Checkpoints

- Nov 5, 2026 (estimate): Q3 2026 results: normalized growth and margin. Status: Pending. Watch: Normalized adjusted net revenue growth of about 4% or more and the 2026 outlook kept pass; another cut to the revenue or EPS outlook fails.
- Feb 2027 (estimate): Full-year 2026 results and 2027 outlook. Status: Pending. Watch: About 150 basis points of normalized margin expansion in 2026, more than $2 billion returned to shareholders and a 2027 outlook with faster growth pass; a weak 2027 outlook or higher leverage fails.
- Q4 2027 (estimate): Worldpay integration and the 2025 to 2027 capital return plan. Status: Pending. Watch: About $7.5 billion returned to shareholders from 2025 to 2027 with leverage within covenants passes; a smaller return or a delayed integration fails.

## Balance sheet

- Cash: $1.7B
- Debt: $22.4B
- Net debt: $20.7B
- Undrawn credit line: $5.0B, to May 2030
- Debt due within 12 months: $925M

Global Payments funds itself with unsecured senior notes, convertible notes, bank loans and commercial paper. Debt is the carrying amount of long-term debt at June 30, 2026, $22.4 billion, after a $69.1 million unamortized discount. It includes $1.5 billion of 1.000% convertible notes due August 2029, about $2.0 billion of 1.500% convertible notes due March 2031, $1.6 billion on the revolving credit facility, a $1.0 billion term loan due April 2028 and $674.8 million of commercial paper. It does not include $1.1 billion of settlement lines of credit, which fund merchant settlement for a few days. Cash is the $1,697.9 million that the company considers available for general purposes. Total cash and cash equivalents were $5,409.0 million, but most of it is settlement cash, merchant reserves and funds held for customers. The $7.25 billion revolving credit facility matures in May 2030, and its available commitments were $5.0 billion at June 30, 2026, but commercial paper must stay below the undrawn amount. The covenants include a maximum leverage ratio of 4.50 times, and the company was in compliance. GAAP interest cover is low in 2026, because operating income includes Worldpay deal costs and amortization. A contingent value right of $358.6 million is due to former Worldpay owners in 2027. Global Payments plans to return more than $2 billion to shareholders in 2026 and pays a quarterly dividend of $0.25 per share.

As of 2026-06-30.

Sources:

- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1123360/000112336026000084/gpn-20260630.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1123360/000112336026000082/exhibit99120260630.htm

## Recent events

- 2026-09-23: Global Payments published research that says consumers expect AI to make 15% of their purchases within five years.
- 2026-08-24: Global Payments announced Genius World, its first event to show its full line of Genius point-of-sale products for retail, restaurant and enterprise merchants.
- 2026-08-05: Global Payments reported Q2 2026 results, its first full quarter as a pure merchant business. GAAP revenue was $3.32 billion, and adjusted net revenue was $3.16 billion, up about 4% on a normalized basis. Adjusted operating margin was 42.0%. GAAP diluted EPS was $0.05, and adjusted EPS was $3.46, up 12%.
- 2026-08-05: Global Payments cut its 2026 outlook because the conflict in the Middle East hurt its travel business. It now expects normalized, constant currency adjusted net revenue growth of about 4% to 5% and adjusted EPS of $13.60 to $13.80, down from about 5% and $13.80 to $14.00. It kept its plan to return more than $2 billion to shareholders in 2026.
- 2026-06-08: Global Payments completed a $500 million accelerated share repurchase, started on May 6, 2026. It bought back 7.2 million shares at an average price of $69.30.
- 2026-05-06: Global Payments reported Q1 2026 results. GAAP revenue was $2.97 billion, and GAAP diluted loss per share was $6.59. Adjusted net revenue grew about 5.5% on a normalized basis, and adjusted EPS was $2.96, up 10%. It kept its 2026 outlook.
- 2026-04-21: Global Payments signed a $1.0 billion senior unsecured term loan due April 21, 2028, at one-month SOFR plus 1.05%.

## Risks

- High: Merchant payment processing is competitive. Point-of-sale software companies and online payment companies compete for the same merchants, and this can push prices down. Normalized revenue grew only about 4% in Q2 2026, and slower growth can keep the market's doubt in place.
- High: The Worldpay integration is large and complex. Global Payments must combine systems, teams and products while it keeps clients. Delays or client losses can cut the expected margin gains.
- Medium: Debt is high after the Worldpay purchase. Long-term debt was $22.4 billion at June 30, 2026, and interest and other expense was $519.9 million in the first half of 2026. The company also returns more than $2 billion to shareholders in 2026, so higher interest rates or lower cash flow can slow debt reduction.
- Medium: Payment volumes follow consumer spending. The conflict in the Middle East already hurt the travel business in 2026, and a weaker consumer would lower volumes in SMB and Enterprise.
- Low: Card networks and regulators can change interchange and network rules. Global Payments must also keep its card network registrations and its bank sponsors to process payments.

## Links

- Page: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/company/GPN/
- History of changes: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/company/GPN/history/
- JSON with full history: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/data/company/GPN.json

> Picks is a personal record of stock picks. It gives information only, not financial, investment, tax or legal advice. Prices, fair values and ratings can be delayed or wrong; check the original source. Full disclaimer: /disclaimer/.