# Experian (EXPGY)

Sector: Credit bureaus & data analytics

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $35.48 |
| Fair value (Analysts) | $42.00 |
| Discount to fair value | 15.5% |
| Fair value uncertainty (Analysts) | Medium |
| Economic moat (Analysts) | Narrow |
| LSEG analyst rating (1 strong buy to 5 strong sell) | 1.67 |
| Data as of | 2026-10-12 |
| Next earnings | 2026-11-18 (confirmed) |

## In short

Investors fear that AI scoring and new US mortgage rules will cut the need for credit bureau data, so the gap closes slowly as Experian keeps organic growth inside its guided range.

## Themes and gap

- Themes: AI disruption risk (ai-disruption), Regulation and courts (regulation-legal), Weak consumer (weak-consumer)
- Gap type: Slow (slow)
- Why: Only years of steady organic growth can show that lenders still need bureau data in the age of AI scoring.

## About

Experian is one of the world's largest credit bureaus. It collects data on how people and businesses borrow and repay money. It sells credit reports, scores and analytics to banks, lenders, insurers and other businesses that must decide to whom they lend or with whom they do business. North America is its largest market, with about 67% of revenue in the year to March 2026. There, Experian also runs Experian Health and a large automotive data business. Latin America, mostly Brazil through the Serasa brand, gives about 15% of revenue. The UK and Ireland give 11%, and EMEA and Asia Pacific give 7%. Experian also runs a large Consumer Services business with more than 215 million free members worldwide. They get free credit reports and monitoring, and some pay for premium subscriptions or identity protection. Experian is incorporated in Jersey, is tax resident in Ireland and has its head office in Dublin. Its main listing is on the London Stock Exchange, where it is in the FTSE 100. Each US ADR (EXPGY) is one ordinary share and trades over the counter on OTCQX. Brian Cassin has been CEO since July 2014.

## Thesis

Investors fear that lenders will need less credit bureau data. AI tools and new data sources can let lenders score borrowers without a bureau. US mortgage policy now adds a second fear. FICO announced in October 2025 that it will license mortgage scores directly to lenders. In September 2026 the head of the FHFA, the regulator of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, opened VantageScore 4.0 to all of their lenders and said that the bureaus charge too much. In October 2026 Bloomberg reported that the FHFA will let lenders pull credit reports from two bureaus instead of three. The gap can close if Experian keeps organic revenue growth inside its 6% to 8% guidance for fiscal 2027, as it did with 7% in the first quarter. North America B2B growth must stay strong while the mortgage rules change, and the new cash flow data and fraud products must add growth. A settlement or ruling in the CFPB lawsuit over dispute investigations without a large penalty would remove a smaller doubt. The evidence comes with the half-year results on November 18, 2026, the third-quarter update in January 2027 and the full-year results with fiscal 2028 guidance in May 2027. If growth holds through these reports, the gap can close over the next two to four quarters. If the mortgage changes or AI scoring cause a clear loss of volume, the gap can stay open for years.

## Checkpoints

- Jul 16, 2026: Q1 FY27 trading update: organic growth against guidance. Status: Passed. Watch: Organic revenue growth inside the 6% to 8% range with guidance kept passes; growth below 6% or a guidance cut fails. Outcome: Organic revenue grew 7% and Experian kept its full-year guidance unchanged.
- Oct 2026 (estimate): FHFA decision on credit reports from two bureaus. Status: Pending. Watch: No change, or a change that starts slowly and keeps Experian in most mortgage files, passes; an immediate move to two bureaus with lower report prices fails.
- Nov 18, 2026: H1 FY27 results: organic growth, margin and leverage. Status: Pending. Watch: Organic growth of 6% to 8% with a higher Benchmark EBIT margin passes; growth below 6% or weaker North America B2B growth fails.
- Jan 2027 (estimate): Q3 FY27 trading update. Status: Pending. Watch: Organic growth stays inside the 6% to 8% range with no sign that lenders are dropping bureau data passes; a slowdown below 6% fails.
- May 2027 (estimate): FY27 full-year results and FY28 guidance. Status: Pending. Watch: Full-year organic growth of 6% to 8% and FY28 guidance for similar growth pass; lower FY28 growth guidance because of AI, score competition or mortgage rule changes fails.

## Balance sheet

- Cash: $326M
- Debt: $5.5B
- Net debt: $5.2B
- EBITDA, last 12 months: $3.0B
- Net debt / EBITDA: 1.7× (low)
- Interest cover: 13×
- Undrawn credit line: $2.5B
- Debt due within 12 months: $572M
- Last debt due: 2036
- Ratings: S&P A- (stable outlook), Moody's A3 (stable outlook)

Experian reports in US dollars. Most of its debt is unsecured bonds that the group issues centrally. Net debt was 1.7 times Benchmark EBITDA at March 31, 2026, below the group's own range of 2.0 to 2.5 times. This gives room for the $1 billion buyback, more small acquisitions and a strong credit rating. At March 31, 2026, debt was $5,028 million of bonds and notes, $278 million of commercial paper, $90 million of bank loans and $133 million of leases. Reported net debt was $5,179 million, which includes a $24 million derivative asset that hedges the debt. The amount due within one year counts the bonds only. Interest cover is Benchmark EBIT of $2,397 million divided by net interest expense of $185 million (interest expense of $219 million less interest income of $34 million). The bonds are in euros, US dollars and pounds, mostly at fixed rates. A 500 million euro bond fell due on June 25, 2026. On June 17, 2026 Experian sold a $1 billion 5.35% bond due in August 2036. The next bond to fall due is a 300 million euro floating rate note in March 2028. In April and May 2026 Experian signed two new $250 million bank loans. The company expects net interest of $250 million to $260 million in fiscal 2027. The pension plans had a net surplus of $183 million. Goodwill and other intangible assets of $10,339 million are almost twice the net assets of $5,583 million, because of past acquisitions and buybacks.

As of 2026-03-31.

Sources:

- https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcement/rns/experian--expn/full-year-financial-report/9576492
- https://www.experianplc.com/investors/debt-information
- https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcement/rns/experian--expn/bond-issue/9622851

## Recent events

- 2026-10-06: Experian launched the Experian Cashflow Data Bureau, a new US consumer reporting agency for bank-account cash flow data that lenders can use with credit files.
- 2026-10-01: Bloomberg reported that the FHFA plans to let Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac accept credit reports from any two of the three national bureaus instead of all three. The report said that the FHFA director was expected to announce the change at the Mortgage Bankers Association convention on October 12, 2026. US bureau shares fell on October 2.
- 2026-09-04: FHFA director Bill Pulte told Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to accept VantageScore 4.0 from all approved lenders. This ended a pilot for at most 50 lenders that started on May 1, 2026. He said that the bureaus charge too much and that the FHFA was considering reports from two bureaus. The Experian ADR fell 4.8% to $37.91 on the day. Experian co-owns VantageScore with Equifax and TransUnion.
- 2026-07-22: Shareholders approved all 17 resolutions at the annual meeting. Adam Crozier was elected with 98.97% of votes and became chair after the meeting. Brian Cassin was re-elected with 99.37%.
- 2026-07-16: The Q1 FY27 trading update showed total revenue up 10% at actual exchange rates and 7% organically, in the middle of the 6% to 8% guidance for the full year. North America B2B grew 11% organically. North America Consumer Services fell 2% because two data breach support contracts ended; without them it grew 3%. Experian did not change its full-year guidance.
- 2026-07-01: Serasa, the Brazilian unit of Experian, completed the purchase of idwall, a digital identity and fraud prevention company. Experian did not disclose the price. Brazilian press reports gave about BRL 400 million.
- 2026-06-17: Experian sold a US$1 billion bond with a 5.35% coupon, due on August 24, 2036. The money is for general purposes, which include the repayment of debt.
- 2026-05-20: Experian reported results for FY26, the year to March 31, 2026. Ongoing revenue was $8,425 million, up 13% at actual exchange rates and 8% organically. The Benchmark EBIT margin was 28.6%, up 50 basis points at actual rates. Benchmark EPS rose 15%. The board increased the full-year dividend by 11% to 69.25 US cents. Experian bought back $725 million of shares in FY26 and announced a new $1 billion buyback through June 2027. FY27 guidance is 6% to 8% organic growth and a margin gain of about 50 basis points.
- 2026-04-21: Experian named Adam Crozier, chair of BT Group and a former CEO of ITV, as chair designate. He was to replace Mike Rogers as chair after the July 2026 annual meeting.
- 2026-01-26: Experian shares fell to a two-year low. Analysts, including Panmure Liberum, named the fear that AI will disrupt credit bureaus, the weak US dollar and the FICO plan to sell mortgage scores directly to lenders. The fall started after the Q3 FY26 trading update of January 21, 2026, which showed 8% organic growth.
- 2025-11-12: Experian reported H1 FY26 results, for the six months to September 30, 2025. Revenue grew 12% at constant exchange rates and 8% organically. Organic growth increased from 8% in Q1 to 9% in Q2. Benchmark EBIT grew 14%, and the margin rose 50 basis points. The board increased the interim dividend by 10% to 21.25 US cents and moved full-year guidance to about 8% organic growth.
- 2025-10-22: A US federal court denied the motion of Experian to dismiss the January 2025 CFPB lawsuit. The lawsuit says that Experian did "sham investigations" of consumer disputes about credit reports, against the Fair Credit Reporting Act. The court told Experian to answer the complaint. In January 2026 the court struck some of the defenses of Experian.
- 2025-10-02: FICO announced that it will license its credit scores directly to mortgage lenders and resellers, so that they can pay less to bureaus such as Experian for mortgage scores. On October 14, 2025, Experian made its VantageScore 4.0 mortgage scores free of charge for an indefinite period.

## Risks

- High: Lenders can need less bureau data if AI tools or new data sources let them score borrowers without a bureau. The FICO plan from October 2025 to sell mortgage scores directly to lenders shows that a large partner is ready to remove the bureaus from part of the fee chain. This fear is the main reason for the price.
- High: US mortgage policy is moving against the bureaus. In September 2026 the FHFA opened VantageScore 4.0 to all lenders of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and said that the bureaus charge too much. In October 2026 Bloomberg reported a plan to accept reports from two bureaus instead of three. Each bureau can then lose some mortgage report volume and some pricing power.
- Medium: The CFPB is suing Experian Information Solutions over alleged "sham" investigations of consumer disputes. The court let the case continue in October 2025, and discovery continues. A loss could bring penalties and more costly dispute processes.
- Medium: North America gives about two-thirds of group revenue and depends on US consumer credit and mortgage activity. Less US lending, a weaker labor market or fewer mortgages would decrease the number of reports and scores that Experian sells.
- Medium: US political pressure on consumer lending can limit how Experian collects, prices or uses consumer data. In January 2026 President Trump called for a 10% cap on credit card interest rates, and bills for such a cap are in Congress.
- Medium: Experian reports in US dollars but earns much revenue in British pounds, Brazilian reais and other currencies. Changes in the dollar make reported growth look better or worse than the business.
- Low: Experian buys many small companies (ClearSale in 2025, KYC360 in 2025, Own Up and Konfir in April 2026, idwall in July 2026) to add fraud, identity and data products. Each deal is small, but many integrations at the same time add execution risk.

## Links

- Page: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/company/EXPGY/
- History of changes: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/company/EXPGY/history/
- JSON with full history: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/data/company/EXPGY.json

> Picks is a personal record of stock picks. It gives information only, not financial, investment, tax or legal advice. Prices, fair values and ratings can be delayed or wrong; check the original source. Full disclaimer: /disclaimer/.