# Exelon (EXC)

Sector: Electric & gas utilities

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $43.50 |
| Fair value (Analysts) | $45.00 |
| Discount to fair value | 3.3% |
| Fair value uncertainty (Analysts) | Low |
| Economic moat (Analysts) | Narrow |
| LSEG analyst rating (1 strong buy to 5 strong sell) | 2.76 |
| Data as of | 2026-10-16 |
| Next earnings | 2026-10-30 (confirmed) |

## In short

The market prices Exelon for political pressure on utility bills and the new shares it must sell, and fair rate decisions with earnings growth near the top of its range can close the gap.

## Themes and gap

- Themes: Regulation and courts (regulation-legal), Interest rates (interest-rates), Power and energy (power-energy)
- Gap type: Can close (closable)
- Why: The Q3 2026 report on October 30, 2026, the 2027 guidance and the new rate cases in Maryland and Pennsylvania give dated tests.

## About

Exelon owns six regulated utilities that deliver electricity and natural gas to almost 11 million customers. ComEd serves northern Illinois, including Chicago. PECO serves southeastern Pennsylvania. BGE serves central Maryland. PHI owns Pepco, Delmarva Power (DPL) and Atlantic City Electric (ACE), which serve Washington, D.C. and parts of Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey. Exelon separated its power generation business, Constellation, in 2022. State commissions set its distribution rates, and FERC sets its transmission rates. Exelon plans capital expenditures of $41.7 billion over the four years from 2026, and it expects rate base growth of 7.9% a year.

## Thesis

The market prices Exelon for the political pressure on utility bills in its states and for the new shares it must sell to fund its building plan. In April 2026, PECO withdrew its electric and gas rate cases in Pennsylvania after talks with the governor about affordability. In May 2026, Maryland passed a law that stops rate cases with forecasted test years until April 1, 2027. Exelon plans $3.4 billion of new equity through 2029 to fund capital expenditures of $41.7 billion. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Exelon must reach its 2026 guidance of $2.81 to $2.91 per share and keep earnings growth near the top of its 5% to 7% range through 2029. Regulators must give fair decisions in the new BGE rate case filed in July 2026 and in the later cases at PECO and Pepco. Exelon must sell the planned new shares without large price cuts and keep its credit ratings. The Q3 2026 report on October 30, 2026 gives the next test. The 2027 guidance and the updated capital plan in February 2027 are the main tests. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next two to four quarters. The main reason it may not close is that state politicians limit rate increases further because of high energy bills.

## Checkpoints

- Oct 30, 2026: Q3 2026 results: guidance and financing. Status: Pending. Watch: Exelon keeps its 2026 guidance of $2.81 to $2.91 per share and its growth target near the top of 5% to 7% passes; a lower guidance or a cut in the capital plan fails.
- Feb 2027 (estimate): 2027 guidance and updated capital plan. Status: Pending. Watch: 2027 guidance in line with growth near 7% from 2026 and no large increase in planned new shares pass; lower growth or more new shares fail.

## Balance sheet

- Cash: $1.8B
- Debt: $52.7B
- Net debt: $50.9B
- Undrawn credit line: $3.2B
- Debt due within 12 months: $2.0B

Exelon funds its utilities with long-term debt at the holding company and at each utility, commercial paper and new shares. At June 30, 2026, long-term debt was $50.31 billion, long-term debt due within one year was $727 million, short-term borrowings were $1.24 billion and long-term debt to financing trusts was $390 million, so total debt was about $52.7 billion. Cash and cash equivalents were $1.81 billion. In the first half of 2026, Exelon issued $3.6 billion of long-term debt, repaid $1.6 billion and issued $382 million of common stock. Its credit facilities have total commitments of $4.0 billion, and $3.2 billion was available to support more commercial paper at June 30, 2026. Exelon plans to fund about 40% of its added capital spending with equity, about $850 million a year.

As of 2026-06-30.

Sources:

- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109357/000110935726000080/exc-20260630.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109357/000110935726000077/exc-20260730ex991.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109357/000110935726000014/exc-20260212ex991.htm

## Recent events

- 2026-08-25: Exelon announced leadership changes. Jeanne Jones, the CFO, became Executive Vice President of Finance and Strategy on October 5, 2026, and Robert Kleczynski, the Corporate Controller, became CFO on the same day. Mike Innocenzo, the Chief Operating Officer, will leave the company in 2027.
- 2026-07-30: Exelon reported Q2 2026 results. GAAP net income was $0.39 per share, and adjusted operating earnings rose to $0.43 per share from $0.39. Exelon kept its 2026 guidance of $2.81 to $2.91 per share and its earnings growth target near the top of 5% to 7% a year from 2025 to 2029. It had completed about 86% of its planned 2026 debt financings.
- 2026-07-02: BGE filed an electric distribution rate case with the Maryland Public Service Commission to recover investments, operating costs, cost of capital and storm costs.
- 2026-05-12: The Governor of Maryland signed the Maryland Utility Relief Act. It stops rate cases with forecasted test years until April 1, 2027, and it requires BGE, Pepco and DPL to join a regional transmission organization from July 1, 2026.
- 2026-04-16: PECO withdrew its electric and natural gas distribution rate cases in Pennsylvania. It cited the financial pressure on customers and talks with Governor Josh Shapiro. PECO said that it will continue investments for safety and reliability and make longer-term investments at another time.
- 2026-02-12: Exelon reported 2025 adjusted operating earnings of $2.77 per share. It gave 2026 guidance of $2.81 to $2.91 per share and a four-year capital plan of $41.3 billion, later raised to $41.7 billion. Its financing plan includes $3.4 billion of new equity through 2029.

## Risks

- High: Politicians in Pennsylvania, Maryland and other states focus on high energy bills. PECO withdrew its rate cases in April 2026, and Maryland limited forecasted rate cases until April 2027. Lower or later rate increases would slow earnings growth.
- Medium: Exelon plans to spend $41.7 billion over four years and to issue $3.4 billion of new shares through 2029. Higher interest rates or a lower share price would make this funding more costly and lower earnings per share growth.
- Medium: On March 5, 2026, a court sent Pepco's District of Columbia rate order back to the commission for evidentiary hearings. The current rates stay in effect for now, but the final result is not certain.
- Low: Several finance and operations leaders change roles from October 2026 to early 2027, including a new CFO. A change in leaders can slow decisions during a period of large regulatory filings.

## Links

- Page: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/company/EXC/
- History of changes: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/company/EXC/history/
- JSON with full history: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/data/company/EXC.json

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