# EPAM Systems (EPAM) Sector: IT services & software engineering | Field | Value | |---|---| | Price | $122.19 | | Fair value (Analysts) | $136.00 | | Discount to fair value | 10.2% | | Fair value uncertainty (Analysts) | High | | Economic moat (Analysts) | None | | LSEG analyst rating (1 strong buy to 5 strong sell) | 2.37 | | Data as of | 2026-10-16 | | Next earnings | 2026-11-05 (confirmed) | ## In short The market fears that AI tools cut the engineering hours that clients buy from EPAM, and growth that moves up again in 2027 with stable margins can close the gap. ## Themes and gap - Themes: AI disruption risk (ai-disruption), New management (management-change) - Gap type: Can close (closable) - Why: The Q3 2026 report on November 5, 2026 and the 2027 outlook in February 2027 show whether growth stops slowing. ## About EPAM Systems builds software for large companies. It designs, builds and runs digital platforms, data systems and AI tools for its clients, and it also gives consulting services. Its largest client groups are in financial services, software and technology, consumer goods and retail, business information and media, and life sciences and healthcare. Most clients are in North America and Europe. Revenue was $5.46 billion in 2025. EPAM had about 62,850 employees at June 30, 2026, and about 56,650 of them were delivery professionals. India is its largest delivery location. At December 31, 2025, about 14,100 of its employees were in Ukraine and Belarus. Balazs Fejes became Chief Executive Officer in September 2025, and the founder, Arkadiy Dobkin, is Executive Chairman. ## Thesis The market prices EPAM for the risk that AI tools reduce the number of engineering hours that clients pay for. EPAM sells most of its work by time and effort, so fewer hours can mean less revenue. EPAM cut its 2026 organic constant currency growth outlook three times: from 3% to 6% in February, to 2.5% to 5.0% in May and to 2.0% to 3.0% in August 2026. Its Q3 2026 outlook was for organic growth of only 1.8% at the midpoint. Operating cash flow was negative in the first half of 2026, while EPAM spent $409 million on buybacks. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Revenue growth must stop slowing and move up again in 2027, which shows that AI work replaces the hours that clients cut. The non-GAAP operating margin must stay in the 15.5% to 16.0% range of the 2026 outlook or rise. Operating cash flow must return to a normal level in the second half of 2026. The Q3 2026 report on November 5, 2026 gives the first test. The full-year report and the 2027 outlook, expected in February 2027, are the main test. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main reason it may not close is that AI lowers the demand for paid engineering hours faster than EPAM can sell new AI work. ## Checkpoints - Nov 5, 2026: Q3 2026 results: growth and cash flow. Status: Pending. Watch: Revenue at or above the $1.410 billion to $1.425 billion outlook, a non-GAAP operating margin of 15.5% or more and positive operating cash flow pass; a lower outlook or more negative cash flow fails. - Feb 2027 (estimate): 2027 outlook: does growth move up again. Status: Pending. Watch: A 2027 organic constant currency growth outlook above the 2.0% to 3.0% of 2026 passes; an outlook for slower growth fails. ## Balance sheet - Cash: $794M - Debt: $25M - Net cash: $769M - Undrawn credit line: $675M, to October 2030 - Last debt due: 2030 EPAM has net cash. At June 30, 2026, it had cash and cash equivalents of $789.4 million and short-term investments of $4.8 million. Its only debt was $25.0 million drawn on its $700 million revolving credit facility, which matures on October 3, 2030, so $675.0 million was available. Cash fell from $1.30 billion at December 31, 2025, because EPAM spent $409.0 million on buybacks in the first half of 2026 and operating cash flow was negative $38.8 million. The credit agreement has customary covenants, and EPAM was in compliance at June 30, 2026. Interest expense is small. As of 2026-06-30. Sources: - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1352010/000135201026000046/epam-20260630.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1352010/000135201026000043/exhibit99_q2x2026.htm ## Recent events - 2026-08-06: EPAM reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue rose 4.5% to $1.415 billion, and organic constant currency growth was 3.4%. The non-GAAP operating margin rose to 16.4% from 15.0%, and non-GAAP EPS rose 22% to $3.38. EPAM lowered its 2026 revenue growth outlook to 3.2% to 4.2%, and its organic constant currency outlook to 2.0% to 3.0%. It raised its non-GAAP EPS outlook to $13.08 to $13.24. - 2026-05-21: At the annual meeting, shareholders approved a change to the certificate of incorporation that lets shareholders call a special meeting. They also approved 4,000,000 more shares for the long-term incentive plan. - 2026-05-07: EPAM reported Q1 2026 results. Revenue rose 7.6% to $1.400 billion, and organic constant currency growth was 3.7%. Non-GAAP EPS was $2.86. EPAM spent $324 million on buybacks in the quarter. It lowered its 2026 organic constant currency growth outlook to 2.5% to 5.0%. - 2026-03-04: EPAM agreed with Morgan Stanley to buy back $300 million of its shares through an accelerated share repurchase. It received an initial 1,703,336 shares. It paid with cash on hand and borrowings under its credit facility. - 2026-02-19: EPAM reported Q4 and full-year 2025 results. Revenue for 2025 rose 15.4% to $5.457 billion, and non-GAAP EPS rose 5.9% to $11.50. For 2026, EPAM expected revenue growth of 4.5% to 7.5% and organic constant currency growth of 3% to 6%. ## Risks - High: AI coding and testing tools can do part of the work that clients now pay EPAM to do by the hour. If clients cut hours faster than EPAM sells new AI projects, revenue can fall. EPAM cut its 2026 growth outlook three times in 2026. - Medium: About 14,100 employees were in Ukraine and Belarus at December 31, 2025. The war in Ukraine can disrupt delivery, and clients can move work away from the region. - Medium: Operating cash flow was negative $38.8 million in the first half of 2026, and cash fell by $507 million in six months after buybacks. If collections do not improve, EPAM has less cash for buybacks and acquisitions. - Low: Most clients are in North America and Europe and in sectors such as financial services and consumer goods. A weaker economy can make clients delay new projects. ## Links - Page: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/company/EPAM/ - History of changes: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/company/EPAM/history/ - JSON with full history: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/data/company/EPAM.json > Picks is a personal record of stock picks. It gives information only, not financial, investment, tax or legal advice. Prices, fair values and ratings can be delayed or wrong; check the original source. Full disclaimer: /disclaimer/.