# DTE Energy (DTE) Sector: Electric & gas utility | Field | Value | |---|---| | Price | $129.73 | | Fair value (Analysts) | $157.00 | | Discount to fair value | 17.4% | | Fair value uncertainty (Analysts) | Low | | Economic moat (Analysts) | Narrow | | LSEG analyst rating (1 strong buy to 5 strong sell) | 2.11 | | Data as of | 2026-10-16 | | Next earnings | 2026-11-05 (confirmed) | ## In short The market prices DTE for a costly building plan paid partly with new shares, and a fair Michigan rate order in early 2027 with approved data center contracts can close the gap. ## Themes and gap - Themes: Power and energy (power-energy), AI supplier (ai-supplier), Interest rates (interest-rates) - Gap type: Can close (closable) - Why: The Michigan electric rate order expected in February 2027 and the approval of the Google data center contract give dated tests. ## About DTE Energy is a utility holding company based in Detroit, Michigan. DTE Electric supplies electricity in southeast Michigan, and DTE Gas supplies natural gas across Michigan. The company also has DTE Vantage, which owns renewable natural gas and other energy projects, and an energy trading business. The Michigan Public Service Commission (MPSC) sets its rates. DTE plans to retire all its coal plants by 2032 and to add solar, wind, battery storage and natural gas plants. It has signed contracts to serve a 1.4 gigawatt Oracle data center, which is under construction, and a 1 gigawatt Google data center, which awaits MPSC approval. ## Thesis The market prices DTE for a costly building plan that needs new shares and fair rate orders. DTE plans to issue $500 million to $600 million of new equity each year from 2026 to 2028, because it added about $3.5 billion of capital to serve data centers and build new plants. In February 2026, the MPSC approved a $242 million annual increase for DTE Electric, well short of the $574 million that it asked for. DTE asked for a further $474 million in April 2026. Customer bills and affordability are political issues in Michigan. For the gap to close, three things must be true. The MPSC must give a fair order on the 2026 electric rate case, which DTE expects in February 2027. The MPSC must approve the Google data center contract, and DTE must sign a further data center agreement by the end of 2026, as it targets. Operating EPS must reach the 2026 guidance of $7.59 to $7.73 and keep growing 6% to 8% a year. The Q3 2026 report on November 5, 2026 gives the next test. The rate order in February 2027 is the main test. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main reason it may not close is a weak rate order, which cuts the return on the large investment plan. ## Checkpoints - Nov 5, 2026: Q3 2026 earnings: guidance and data centers. Status: Pending. Watch: Operating EPS on track for the high end of the $7.59 to $7.73 guidance and progress on a new data center agreement pass; lower guidance or a delay of the Google contract fails. - Feb 2027 (estimate): MPSC order on the 2026 electric rate case. Status: Pending. Watch: An order that grants a large part of the $474 million request with a return on equity near 9.9% or higher passes; an order for much less, or a lower return on equity, fails. ## Balance sheet - Cash: $42M - Debt: $27.6B - Net debt: $27.5B - Debt due within 12 months: $1.7B - Ratings: S&P BBB, Moody's Baa2, Fitch BBB DTE funds its utility investments with mortgage bonds, senior notes, junior subordinated debentures and equity. At June 30, 2026, debt was $27.6 billion, which includes $1.69 billion due within one year, $22.9 billion of mortgage bonds, notes and other debt, $2.46 billion of junior subordinated debentures and $542 million of securitization bonds. There were no short-term borrowings, and cash was $42 million. DTE targets funds from operations of about 15% of debt, and the rating agencies count half of the junior subordinated debt as equity in that measure. DTE Energy's unsecured debt is rated BBB by S&P, Baa2 by Moody's and BBB by Fitch. DTE Electric's secured debt is rated A by S&P, Aa3 by Moody's and A+ by Fitch. As of 2026-06-30. Sources: - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/936340/000093634026000146/dte-20260630.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/936340/000093634026000159/dtebusinessupdate92826fi.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/936340/000093634026000126/dte-20260618.htm ## Recent events - 2026-09-28: DTE gave investors a business update. It said that construction of the 1.4 gigawatt Oracle data center has started and that it submitted the 1 gigawatt Google data center contract to the MPSC. It targets one more data center agreement by the end of 2026 and plans equity issues of $500 million to $600 million each year from 2026 to 2028. - 2026-07-28: DTE reported Q2 2026 results. Reported earnings were $1.35 per share and operating earnings were $1.32 per share, compared with $1.36 a year earlier. DTE confirmed its 2026 operating EPS guidance of $7.59 to $7.73. - 2026-06-18: DTE sold $1.0 billion of 6.200% junior subordinated debentures due 2058. - 2026-05-27: DTE agreed with LG Energy Solution Vertech to build battery storage systems in Michigan for eight projects, with 1.5 gigawatts of capacity and an investment of $1.6 billion. - 2026-04-28: DTE Electric filed a rate case with the MPSC that asks for a $474 million increase in base rates and a return on equity of 10.25%. DTE expects a final order in February 2027. If the first data center comes online by the end of 2027, DTE plans not to file another electric rate case until at least 2028. - 2026-02-19: The MPSC approved an annual revenue increase of $242 million for DTE Electric from March 5, 2026, with a return on equity of 9.9%. DTE had asked for $574 million. ## Risks - High: The MPSC sets DTE's rates and returns. In February 2026, it approved less than half of the electric increase that DTE asked for. Another weak order can reduce earnings growth. - Medium: The growth plan needs $500 million to $600 million of new equity each year from 2026 to 2028, plus more junior subordinated debt. A lower share price makes each issue more dilutive. - Medium: Much of the extra growth depends on data centers. The Google contract still needs MPSC approval, and a delay of the first data center past 2027 can change DTE's plan to pause rate cases. - Low: DTE Vantage earnings depend on renewable natural gas tax credits and on the prices of environmental attributes. Changes in tax law or prices can lower these earnings. ## Links - Page: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/company/DTE/ - History of changes: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/company/DTE/history/ - JSON with full history: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/data/company/DTE.json > Picks is a personal record of stock picks. It gives information only, not financial, investment, tax or legal advice. Prices, fair values and ratings can be delayed or wrong; check the original source. Full disclaimer: /disclaimer/.