# Dominion Energy (D)

Sector: Electric & gas utilities

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $63.56 |
| Fair value (Analysts) | $73.00 |
| Discount to fair value | 12.9% |
| Fair value uncertainty (Analysts) | Medium |
| Economic moat (Analysts) | Narrow |
| LSEG analyst rating (1 strong buy to 5 strong sell) | 2.71 |
| Data as of | 2026-10-16 |
| Next earnings | 2026-10-30 (confirmed) |

## In short

Dominion now trades as a fixed share of NextEra plus deal risk, so the gap closes only if NextEra shares rise or the merger fails and Dominion is valued on its own again.

## Themes and gap

- Themes: Power and energy (power-energy), Regulation and courts (regulation-legal), Interest rates (interest-rates)
- Gap type: Will probably not close (structural)
- Why: Dominion agreed to merge into NextEra for a fixed number of NextEra shares, so its price follows NextEra's share price and the risk that state regulators delay or change the deal.

## About

Dominion Energy is a regulated utility company based in Richmond, Virginia. It supplies electricity to 3.6 million homes and businesses in Virginia, North Carolina and South Carolina, and natural gas to 500,000 customers in South Carolina. Its largest business is Dominion Energy Virginia, which serves the large group of data centers in Loudoun County. It is building the 2.6 gigawatt Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind (CVOW) project, with an estimated total cost of about $11.7 billion and the last turbines expected to be installed by the end of 2027. On May 15, 2026, Dominion agreed to merge into NextEra Energy. Each Dominion share will receive 0.8138 NextEra shares plus a share of a $360 million cash payment, and Dominion shareholders will own about 25.5% of the combined company.

## Thesis

The market prices Dominion as a fixed part of NextEra Energy plus deal risk. Since the merger agreement of May 2026, each Dominion share is worth 0.8138 NextEra shares and a small cash amount at closing, so the stock moves with NextEra's share price. The price also includes a discount for the risk that regulators delay the deal or set conditions. The merger needs approvals from FERC, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the utility commissions of Virginia, North Carolina and South Carolina, without a burdensome condition. In September 2026, the companies made their offer to Virginia larger, with four years of residential bill credits instead of two and other commitments paid by shareholders. The analysts' fair value is for Dominion on its own, so the gap will probably not close while the deal is pending. It can close only in two ways. NextEra's share price can rise, which lifts the value of the exchange ratio. Or the merger can fail, and the market must then value Dominion on its own at a higher price, which is not certain. The companies expect the deal to close 12 to 18 months after May 2026, so between about May and November 2027. The Q3 2026 report on October 30, 2026 and the decisions of the state commissions in 2027 are the dated tests. The main reason the gap may not close is that the price stays tied to NextEra until the deal closes or fails.

## Checkpoints

- Oct 30, 2026: Q3 2026 earnings and merger approvals. Status: Pending. Watch: Operating earnings in line with the 2026 guidance and progress on the state merger approvals pass; lower guidance or a new delay in the approval schedule fails.
- 2027 (estimate): Merger closes with NextEra. Status: Pending. Watch: Approval by the Virginia, North Carolina and South Carolina commissions without a burdensome condition, and a close between May and November 2027, pass; a rejection, a new large condition or a delay past 2027 fails.

## Balance sheet

- Cash: $296M
- Debt: $53.4B
- Net debt: $53.1B
- Debt due within 12 months: $6.7B

Dominion funds its large building program with senior notes, junior subordinated notes, commercial paper and equity. At June 30, 2026, total debt was $53.4 billion. This includes long-term debt of $46.7 billion, of which $7.5 billion is junior subordinated notes and $794 million is securitization bonds, $4.0 billion of securities due within one year, $2.5 billion of short-term debt and $200 million drawn on a supplemental credit facility. Cash was $296 million. Interest and related charges were $555 million in Q2 2026, up from $505 million a year earlier. In June 2026, Dominion issued $825 million of senior notes due 2036 and $1.5 billion of junior subordinated notes due 2056. The merger agreement limits some financing and other actions until closing, and NextEra expects the combination to improve the credit ratings of Dominion and Dominion Energy Virginia.

As of 2026-06-30.

Sources:

- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/715957/000119312526327487/d-20260630.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/715957/000119312526326812/d-ex99.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/715957/000119312526272001/d122810d8k.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/715957/000119312526258533/d129582d8k.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/715957/000119312526227930/d158175dex991.htm

## Recent events

- 2026-09-14: NextEra Energy and Dominion announced a larger Virginia benefits package for the merger. It doubles residential bill credits from two years to four years, adds $100 million to the EnergyShare bill assistance program through 2038 and promises 1,000 new direct jobs in Virginia. All new commitments need approval from the Virginia State Corporation Commission.
- 2026-09-03: Dominion shareholders approved the merger with NextEra Energy. About 671 million votes were for the merger and about 8.6 million were against it.
- 2026-08-25: Dominion said that it received demand letters and that two shareholder lawsuits were filed in New York about the merger proxy statement. Dominion said that the claims have no merit, but it added more disclosures to avoid a delay of the merger.
- 2026-07-31: Dominion reported Q2 2026 results. GAAP net income was $0.37 per share and operating earnings were $0.79 per share, up from $0.75. GAAP income included impairment charges on some nonregulated solar and renewable natural gas facilities. Dominion reaffirmed its 2026 operating earnings guidance of $3.45 to $3.69 per share.
- 2026-06-08: Dominion sold $1.5 billion of junior subordinated notes due 2056. On June 3, 2026, it also sold $825 million of 5.35% senior notes due 2036.
- 2026-05-18: NextEra Energy and Dominion announced an all-stock merger. Dominion shareholders will receive 0.8138 NextEra shares for each share, plus a share of a $360 million cash payment at closing. The companies proposed $2.25 billion of bill credits for Dominion's customers and expect to close in 12 to 18 months.

## Risks

- High: The merger needs approvals from FERC, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and three state utility commissions. A commission can delay the deal or set conditions, such as more bill credits, that reduce its value. The companies already increased the Virginia package in September 2026.
- Medium: While the deal is pending, the stock moves with NextEra's share price. A fall in NextEra shares lowers the value of each Dominion share.
- Medium: If the merger fails, Dominion can suffer rating actions, a lower stock price and the costs of the deal. Dominion said these risks in its filings.
- Medium: The CVOW offshore wind project has an estimated cost of about $11.7 billion, which includes new network upgrade costs and tariffs. More delays or cost increases can reduce returns or need regulatory approval to recover.

## Links

- Page: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/company/D/
- History of changes: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/company/D/history/
- JSON with full history: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/data/company/D.json

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