# Carlyle (CG)

Sector: Asset management

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $36.81 |
| Fair value (Analysts) | $52.00 |
| Discount to fair value | 29.2% |
| Fair value uncertainty (Analysts) | High |
| Economic moat (Analysts) | Narrow |
| LSEG analyst rating (1 strong buy to 5 strong sell) | 2.57 |
| Data as of | 2026-10-16 |
| Next earnings | 2026-11-05 (confirmed) |

## In short

Investors fear private credit losses and irregular carry, and steady fee growth, inflows and fund exits toward the 2028 targets can close the gap over 2027 and 2028.

## Themes and gap

- Themes: Interest rates (interest-rates), AI disruption risk (ai-disruption)
- Gap type: Slow (slow)
- Why: The gap closes only as fee growth, fund exits and fundraising build toward the 2028 targets over two years.

## About

Carlyle is a global investment firm that manages private capital for pension funds, insurers, sovereign funds and wealthy individuals. It had $485 billion of assets under management at June 30, 2026, of which $334 billion earned fees. It reports three segments: Global Private Equity ($162.7 billion of assets), Global Credit ($211.1 billion) and Carlyle AlpInvest, its secondaries and co-investment business ($111.7 billion). Carlyle earns management fees on the capital in its funds, and these fees are steady because most funds lock up capital for many years. It also earns transaction and capital markets fees, and a share of fund profits (carried interest) when the funds sell investments at a gain. Carried interest is large but irregular, because it depends on when the funds can sell companies. Carlyle pays a fixed dividend of $0.35 per share each quarter and buys back shares.

## Thesis

The market prices Carlyle at a discount because it doubts that private markets can keep growing at the old pace. Three fears hold the price down. First, investors fear losses and redemptions in private credit, Carlyle's largest segment: in February 2026, Blue Owl stopped redemptions in a fund and private credit stocks fell, and loans to software companies lost value in 2026 because investors fear that AI will hurt these borrowers. Second, carried interest is irregular: in Q1 2026, distributable earnings fell 28% because realized carry fell 84%, even with many fund exits. Third, the raise of its next flagship US buyout fund is at an early stage, and management expects no major closes until later in the cycle. For the gap to close, Carlyle must stay on the path to its 2028 targets, set in February 2026: fee-related earnings of $1.9 billion or more, distributable earnings of $6.00 or more per share, and more than $200 billion of inflows from 2026 to 2028. The checks are growth in fee-related earnings from $1.236 billion in 2025, inflows near the $56 billion of the 12 months to June 2026, steady realized carry, and low credit losses with redemptions in the wealth credit funds below their caps. The first check is the Q3 2026 report on November 5, 2026, and the full-year 2026 report in February 2027 gives a full year of evidence. If fundraising, carry and credit hold, the gap can close over 2027 and 2028. The main reason it may not close is a credit cycle that raises losses in private credit and slows fund exits.

## Checkpoints

- Nov 5, 2026: Q3 2026 results: fees, inflows and carry. Status: Pending. Watch: Fee-related earnings that grow from a year earlier and inflows near the $16.8 billion of Q2 2026 pass; a fall in fee-related earnings or rising credit losses fail.
- Feb 2027 (estimate): Full-year 2026 results: progress to 2028 targets. Status: Pending. Watch: Fee-related earnings clearly above the $1.236 billion of 2025 and distributable earnings per share above the $4.02 of 2025 pass; flat fee-related earnings or a cut to the 2028 targets fail.
- 2027 (estimate): Flagship US buyout fund raise. Status: Pending. Watch: A first close of the next US buyout fund near the size of the previous fund passes; a smaller fund or a long delay fails.

## Balance sheet

- Cash: $1.3B
- Debt: $3.0B
- Net debt: $1.8B
- Undrawn credit line: $1.0B, to May 2030
- Last debt due: 2061
- Ratings: S&P A- (stable outlook), Fitch A- (stable outlook)

Carlyle has little debt for its size, and its main assets are its stakes in its own funds and the carried interest it has earned but not yet received. Debt at June 30, 2026 was $2,675 million of senior and subordinated notes, due in 2029, 2035, 2043, 2048 and 2061, and $351 million of borrowings of CLOs that Carlyle consolidates. The CLO borrowings have no recourse to other Carlyle entities. No note matures before September 2029. Cash is $1,257 million at June 30, 2026, without the cash of consolidated funds. Carlyle said that about $0.6 billion of it was free after amounts set aside for carry payouts, partners and regulatory capital. Net accrued performance revenues were about $2.4 billion at June 30, 2026, and they become cash when funds sell investments. The $1.0 billion revolving credit facility was not drawn at June 30, 2026, and it matures on May 29, 2030. S&P and Fitch affirmed the A- rating with a stable outlook in Q4 2025. In February 2026, the board approved a $2 billion share buyback program, and $1.6 billion of it was left after Q2 2026.

As of 2026-06-30.

Sources:

- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1527166/000152716626000045/cg-20260630.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1527166/000152716626000009/cg-20251231.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1527166/000152716626000036/cg202606308-kexx991.htm

## Recent events

- 2026-10-05: Carlyle said that it will report Q3 2026 results on November 5, 2026, before a conference call at 8:30 a.m. EST.
- 2026-09-29: Nidec confirmed that it is in talks to sell a components unit to Carlyle for about $636 million, Investing.com reported.
- 2026-09-03: Carlyle and Dynasty Equity closed their minority investments in the Seattle Seahawks NFL team.
- 2026-08-05: Carlyle reported Q2 2026 results. Distributable earnings were $472 million, or $1.07 per share, the highest in nearly four years. Fee-related earnings were a record $358 million, up 11% from a year earlier. Inflows were $16.8 billion in the quarter and $55.8 billion over 12 months. Assets under management were a record $485 billion. Carlyle bought back 6.7 million shares for $304 million, a record, and kept the dividend at $0.35 per share.
- 2026-07-31: PitchBook reported that redemption requests at Carlyle Credit Solutions, a non-traded private credit fund, fell to about 3.6% of shares in Q2 2026, from about 4.8% in the previous quarter. The requests were below the fund's redemption limit.
- 2026-06-08: Carlyle completed the purchase of a majority stake in MAI Capital Management, a wealth manager. Press reports gave the deal value as about $2.8 billion.
- 2026-06-01: Carlyle named Kate Heinzelman as General Counsel, effective June 29, 2026. Jeffrey Ferguson, the former General Counsel, became a Senior Advisor.
- 2026-05-07: Carlyle reported Q1 2026 results. Distributable earnings fell 28% to $327 million, or $0.89 per share, because realized carried interest fell 84% to $20.5 million. Fee-related earnings were $300 million, down 3.4%. Inflows were $13 billion, with a record quarter at AlpInvest.

## Risks

- High: Private credit is Carlyle's largest segment, with $211.1 billion of assets at June 30, 2026. If defaults rise, for example among software borrowers that AI can hurt, fund returns, fees and new inflows can fall. Withdrawals from wealth funds that offer regular redemptions can also slow growth, as at Blue Owl in February 2026.
- High: Carried interest depends on fund exits at a gain, and the timing is irregular. In Q1 2026, realized carry fell 84% from a year earlier and distributable earnings fell 28%. Weak markets for sales and IPOs can delay carry for several quarters.
- Medium: The 2028 targets need more than $200 billion of inflows from 2026 to 2028. Carlyle's next flagship US buyout fund is at an early stage, and management said no major closes are expected until later in the cycle. A slow raise lowers fee growth.
- Medium: Carlyle invests in AI, technology and its wealth business. Management said that this spending can delay the rise in the margin on fee-related earnings to 2027 or 2028.
- Low: Carlyle's revenue depends on fund values, which move with stock and credit markets, interest rates and energy prices. A war or an energy shock can lower fund values and slow deals.

## Links

- Page: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/company/CG/
- History of changes: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/company/CG/history/
- JSON with full history: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/data/company/CG.json

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