# Blackstone (BX) Sector: Alternative asset management | Field | Value | |---|---| | Price | $108.59 | | Fair value (Analysts) | $147.00 | | Discount to fair value | 26.1% | | Fair value uncertainty (Analysts) | High | | Economic moat (Analysts) | Wide | | LSEG analyst rating (1 strong buy to 5 strong sell) | 2.28 | | Data as of | 2026-10-15 | | Next earnings | 2026-10-22 (confirmed) | ## In short Investors fear that private credit losses and capped BCRED withdrawals will slow Blackstone's growth, and steady inflows with falling repurchase requests can close the gap. ## Themes and gap - Themes: Interest rates (interest-rates), AI disruption risk (ai-disruption) - Gap type: Can close (closable) - Why: Quarterly inflows, BCRED repurchase requests and credit losses over the next four to six quarters can show that the growth plan holds. ## About Blackstone is the largest alternative asset manager in the world, with $1.35 trillion of assets under management at June 30, 2026. It invests money for pension funds, insurers, sovereign wealth funds and individual investors in real estate, private equity, private credit, infrastructure, secondaries and hedge funds. It reports four segments: Real Estate, Private Equity, Credit & Insurance, and Multi-Asset Investing. It earns management fees on $962 billion of fee-earning assets, and performance revenues when its funds sell investments at a profit. More than 40% of its assets are perpetual capital, such as the BREIT real estate fund and the BCRED private credit fund, which sell shares to wealthy individuals and pay steady fees. Blackstone pays out most of its distributable earnings as a dividend each quarter. Stephen Schwarzman is the Chairman and CEO, and Jon Gray is the President. ## Thesis The market prices Blackstone with a discount because investors fear that private credit losses and withdrawals by individual investors will slow its growth. Individual investors drove much of Blackstone's growth through perpetual funds such as BCRED. BCRED had its first monthly loss since 2022 in February 2026, from write-downs on some loans, including one to the software company Medallia, and investors fear that AI hurts many software borrowers. Repurchase requests then rose above the 5% quarterly cap. BCRED received about $4.5 billion of requests in Q2 2026 and about $4.3 billion in Q3 2026, and paid only up to the cap. Realizations also stay low, so performance revenues depend on markets that let Blackstone sell assets. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Total inflows must stay near the $68.3 billion of Q2 2026, and fee related earnings must keep growing at about 20% a year. BCRED repurchase requests must fall back to the 5% cap or below, while its loans keep performing. Realized performance revenues must rise as Blackstone sells more assets and lists more companies. The first test is the Q3 2026 report on October 22, 2026, followed by the BCRED repurchase window for Q4 2026 and the Q4 report in late January 2027. If flows hold and private credit losses stay small, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. A credit cycle with large defaults would keep the discount for longer. ## Checkpoints - Oct 22, 2026: Q3 2026 results: inflows, fee earnings and BCRED. Status: Pending. Watch: A pass is inflows near Q2's $68.3 billion and fee related earnings growth near 20%; a fail is a clear drop in inflows or rising credit losses. - Dec 2026 (estimate): BCRED Q4 2026 repurchase requests. Status: Pending. Watch: A pass is requests at or below the 5% cap; a fail is requests that stay near 10% of shares. - Jan 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results: realizations. Status: Pending. Watch: A pass is higher realized performance revenues than in Q4 2025; a fail is lower realizations and flat distributable earnings. ## Balance sheet - Cash: $12.2B - Debt: $13.2B - Net debt: $950M - Undrawn credit line: $3.5B, to October 2030 - Ratings: S&P A+, Fitch A+ The figures are from Blackstone's deconsolidated balance sheet, which excludes the consolidated Blackstone funds. At June 30, 2026, cash includes $2.5 billion of cash and cash equivalents and $9.7 billion of corporate treasury and other investments, of which most are liquid. Blackstone also had $3.0 billion of GP and fund investments and $7.5 billion of net accrued performance revenues, for $22.7 billion of cash and net investments. Debt is the outstanding debt at par. The firm has more cash and liquid investments than about all of its debt. GAAP interest expense was $282 million in the first half of 2026. The ratings are from the Q2 2026 results of July 23, 2026. As of 2026-06-30. Sources: - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1393818/000119312526313250/d153439dex991.htm ## Recent events - 2026-09-24: Blackstone said that it will host its Q3 2026 investor call on October 22, 2026, at 9:00 a.m. ET. - 2026-09-22: Blackstone said that it expects realized performance revenues and realized principal investment income of more than $350 million for July 1 to September 22, 2026. Its update for the same part of Q2 2026 was more than $500 million. - 2026-09-03: BCRED, Blackstone's $77 billion private credit fund for individual investors, said that Q3 2026 repurchase requests were about $4.3 billion, and that it will repurchase only 5% of shares, its quarterly cap. It filled about half of the $4.5 billion of Q2 requests, and much of the $2.3 billion that it did not fill came back in Q3. BCRED said that loan repayments and new inflows were more than repurchases. - 2026-07-23: Blackstone reported Q2 2026 results. Fee related earnings were $1.8 billion, up 22%, and distributable earnings were $1.52 per share, up 26%. Inflows were $68.3 billion, and assets under management reached $1.35 trillion. Inflows included $2.0 billion from the initial public offering of Blackstone Digital Infrastructure Trust (BXDC). Blackstone declared a dividend of $1.29 per share. - 2026-06-04: Press reports said that BCRED limited Q2 2026 withdrawals to its 5% quarterly cap, after repurchase requests reached about 10% of shares. ## Risks - High: Private credit can have losses in a credit cycle. BCRED had a 0.4% loss in February 2026 from write-downs on some loans, and lenders have loans to software companies that AI can disrupt. Losses would cut fees and hurt fund-raising from individual investors. - High: Individual investors can ask for their money back from perpetual funds every quarter. BCRED received requests above its 5% cap in Q2 and Q3 2026, and it paid only up to the cap. Long periods of capped withdrawals can damage the brand with the financial advisers who sell these funds. - Medium: Performance revenues depend on asset sales and listings. When deal and stock markets are weak, realizations fall and distributable earnings drop. Higher interest rates also lower the value of real estate, which is one of Blackstone's largest businesses. - Medium: Blackstone invests heavily in data centers and power for AI, for example through BXDC and a data center campus in Michigan with Related Digital. A slowdown in AI spending can lower the value of these assets. ## Links - Page: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/company/BX/ - History of changes: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/company/BX/history/ - JSON with full history: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/data/company/BX.json > Picks is a personal record of stock picks. It gives information only, not financial, investment, tax or legal advice. Prices, fair values and ratings can be delayed or wrong; check the original source. 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