# Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY)

Sector: Pharmaceuticals

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $61.28 |
| Fair value (Analysts) | $70.00 |
| Discount to fair value | 12.5% |
| Fair value uncertainty (Analysts) | Medium |
| Economic moat (Analysts) | Wide |
| LSEG analyst rating (1 strong buy to 5 strong sell) | 2.5 |
| Data as of | 2026-10-15 |
| Next earnings | 2026-10-29 (confirmed) |

## In short

The market fears that new drugs cannot replace Eliquis and Opdivo after their 2028 patent losses, and positive milvexian or Cobenfy readouts in early 2027 can close the gap.

## Themes and gap

- Themes: Regulation and courts (regulation-legal)
- Gap type: Can close (closable)
- Why: Dated pipeline readouts and FDA decisions in the first half of 2027 can show whether new drugs replace the 2028 patent losses.

## About

Bristol Myers Squibb discovers, makes and sells prescription medicines for cancer, blood diseases, heart disease, immune diseases and brain diseases. It earns money from sales of patented drugs to wholesalers, hospitals and governments, and about 70% of its sales are in the US. It splits its drugs into two groups. The Growth Portfolio includes Opdivo, Opdivo Qvantig, Reblozyl, Camzyos, Breyanzi and Cobenfy, and it gave $7.6 billion of the $13.0 billion of revenue in Q2 2026. The Legacy Portfolio includes Eliquis, a blood thinner it sells with Pfizer, and older cancer drugs such as Revlimid and Pomalyst, which now face generic copies. Eliquis and Opdivo lose their main US patent protection in 2028. Its non-GAAP research spending was $2.3 billion in Q2 2026, and it also buys or licenses new drugs to replace these sales.

## Thesis

The market prices Bristol Myers Squibb with a discount because of a patent cliff. Eliquis gave $4.5 billion of revenue in Q2 2026, and its US exclusivity ends in April 2028. Opdivo, its largest cancer drug, also loses US patent protection in 2028. Since January 2026, Medicare pays a government-set price for Eliquis, and Pomalyst follows in January 2027. Investors doubt that new drugs can replace this revenue in time, and the pipeline tests that can show it slipped. The milvexian test in atrial fibrillation and the Cobenfy tests in Alzheimer's disease psychosis moved to early 2027. For the gap to close, three things must be true. The Growth Portfolio must keep growing at about 15% a year, as in Q2 2026. Milvexian or Cobenfy must give positive Phase 3 results in early 2027. The FDA must approve Reblozyl in myelofibrosis by its date of March 11, 2027 and mezigdomide in multiple myeloma by its date of May 13, 2027. The first evidence comes with the Q3 2026 report on October 29, 2026, and the 2027 guidance in early 2027. If the readouts succeed, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. If they fail, the market will probably keep the discount until the size of the 2028 drop is clear.

## Checkpoints

- Oct 29, 2026: Q3 2026 results: Growth Portfolio and guidance. Status: Pending. Watch: A pass is Growth Portfolio growth near 15% and 2026 guidance kept or raised; a fail is slower Growth Portfolio growth or a guidance cut.
- Q1 2027 (estimate): Milvexian Phase 3 in atrial fibrillation. Status: Pending. Watch: A pass is a positive Phase 3 result that supports a filing; a fail is a missed endpoint or a bleeding problem.
- Q1 2027 (estimate): Cobenfy ADEPT trials in Alzheimer's disease psychosis. Status: Pending. Watch: A pass is a positive result that supports a new indication; a fail is a missed primary endpoint.
- May 13, 2027: FDA decision on mezigdomide in multiple myeloma. Status: Pending. Watch: A pass is FDA approval by the PDUFA date; a fail is a rejection or a delay.

## Balance sheet

- Cash: $11.5B
- Debt: $43.1B
- Net debt: $31.7B
- Undrawn credit line: $5.0B, to January 2031
- Debt due within 12 months: $1.0B
- Ratings: Moody's A2 (stable outlook), S&P A (stable outlook)

Debt is the carrying value of short-term debt obligations and long-term debt at June 30, 2026. It includes $734 million of purchase price adjustments on debt acquired from Celgene, and its fair value was $39.2 billion. Cash includes $2.7 billion of marketable debt securities. Net debt fell by $2.4 billion in the first half of 2026, because operating cash flow of $4.5 billion was more than dividends of $2.6 billion. In the same period, $1.7 billion of notes matured and the company repaid them. Interest expense was $818 million in the first half of 2026, against $979 million a year earlier. The $5.0 billion revolving credit line has no financial covenants, and it also supports a commercial paper program of up to $5.0 billion. The ratings are from the 10-K for 2025, filed in February 2026.

As of 2026-06-30.

Sources:

- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/14272/000001427226000020/bmy-20260630.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/14272/000001427226000004/bmy-20251231.htm

## Recent events

- 2026-10-12: Bristol Myers Squibb said that two Phase 3 trials met their primary endpoints. In ACTION-1, the radiopharmaceutical RYZ101 extended progression-free survival in patients with GEP-NETs at an interim analysis. In ALOFT-IPF, admilparant 60 mg slowed the loss of lung function in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, but the 120 mg dose did not reach statistical significance. Earlier in October, the company reported a death after acute liver injury in the admilparant program, which a committee judged unlikely to be related to the drug. The stock fell about 3% that day.
- 2026-10-05: Leerink downgraded the stock to Market Perform from Outperform and cut its price target to $59 from $73, because of caution about the coming pipeline readouts. On October 8, Cantor Fitzgerald cut its target to $53.
- 2026-09-30: The FDA approved Camzyos for adults and pediatric patients who weigh at least 30 kilograms with symptomatic obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy.
- 2026-08-11: The FDA gave accelerated approval to Zenbexus (iberdomide) with daratumumab and dexamethasone for multiple myeloma after at least one prior line of therapy. It is the company's first approved CELMoD drug. Full approval depends on the confirmatory trial.
- 2026-07-30: Bristol Myers Squibb reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue was $13.0 billion, up 6%. Growth Portfolio revenue grew 15% to $7.6 billion, and Eliquis revenue grew 22% to $4.5 billion. Non-GAAP EPS was $2.04. It raised its 2026 revenue guidance to about $49.0 to $50.0 billion and its non-GAAP EPS guidance to $6.75 to $7.00. On the call, management said that the milvexian atrial fibrillation readout moved to Q1 2027 and the Cobenfy ADEPT readouts moved to early 2027, because events and enrollment came more slowly.
- 2026-05-12: Bristol Myers Squibb signed licensing agreements with Hengrui Pharma for 13 early-stage programs in cancer, blood diseases and immunology. It pays Hengrui up to $950 million, with $600 million upfront, and more if milestones are met. Also in May 2026, it agreed with Anthropic to use Claude across research, development, manufacturing and commercial work.
- 2026-04-30: Bristol Myers Squibb reported Q1 2026 results. Revenue was $11.5 billion, up 3%, and Growth Portfolio revenue grew 12% to $6.2 billion. Non-GAAP EPS was $1.58.

## Risks

- High: Eliquis and Opdivo lose their main US patent protection in 2028. Eliquis alone gave about 35% of revenue in Q2 2026. Generic Revlimid and Pomalyst already cut Legacy Portfolio revenue by 4% in Q2 2026.
- High: The pipeline must replace the lost revenue, and its key tests come late. The milvexian atrial fibrillation readout moved to Q1 2027, and the Cobenfy ADEPT readouts moved to early 2027. A failure in either test leaves a larger gap after 2028.
- Medium: US drug pricing law lowers prices. Under the Inflation Reduction Act, Medicare pays a set price for Eliquis from January 1, 2026 and for Pomalyst from January 1, 2027. More drugs can be chosen in later years.
- Medium: Safety and trial results can hurt new drugs. The admilparant program had liver injury cases, with one death in October 2026, and its high dose missed statistical significance.
- Low: The company had a net debt of $31.7 billion at June 30, 2026, mostly from the Celgene, Karuna and RayzeBio purchases. Large new purchases to fill the patent gap can raise debt again.

## Links

- Page: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/company/BMY/
- History of changes: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/company/BMY/history/
- JSON with full history: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/data/company/BMY.json

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