# Broadcom (AVGO)

Sector: Semiconductors & infrastructure software

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $361.54 |
| Fair value (Analysts) | $650.00 |
| Discount to fair value | 44.4% |
| Fair value uncertainty (Analysts) | High |
| Economic moat (Analysts) | Wide |
| LSEG analyst rating (1 strong buy to 5 strong sell) | 1.77 |
| Data as of | 2026-10-12 |
| Next earnings | 2026-12-10 (estimate) |

## In short

The market doubts that the AI chip business will reach the FY2027 target, and results that stay on track over the next three to five quarters can close the gap.

## Themes and gap

- Themes: AI supplier (ai-supplier)
- Gap type: Can close (closable)
- Why: Each quarterly report checks the FY2027 AI chip revenue target, starting with the December 2026 report.

## About

Broadcom makes two kinds of products. The first is semiconductors. This includes custom AI chips, networking chips, and storage chips. The second is infrastructure software. This includes VMware, which Broadcom bought in 2023. Broadcom sells its AI chips to large technology companies. These companies use the chips to build AI data centers.

## Thesis

Most of Broadcom's value depends on its AI chip business, which is still new. The market doubts this business will grow to the scale management has guided. Anthropic, which Broadcom expects to become its largest AI chip customer in 2027, pays for its chips with leases. Banks and investment firms fund these leases, and Broadcom partly backs them. Reports say that OpenAI is in talks about a similar plan. This makes part of the demand look less certain than demand paid from a customer's own cash. For the gap to close, Broadcom must show each quarter that its FY2027 AI chip revenue target is on track. Anthropic must also grow its capacity as planned, from 1 gigawatt of Broadcom chips in 2026 to about 5 gigawatts in 2027, and the lenders must complete the financing for these chips. Broadcom's fiscal Q4 2026 earnings report, expected in December 2026, is the next checkpoint on this target. If the ramp stays on pace, the gap can close over the next three to five quarters. If a large customer slows spending, or the financing stops, the gap could last longer.

## Checkpoints

- Dec 10, 2026 (estimate): Q4 FY2026 results: AI revenue and FY2027 target. Status: Pending. Watch: AI chip revenue near the guided $21.7 billion and a confirmed FY2027 AI target of about $115 billion pass; a miss or a lower FY2027 target fails.
- Mar 2027 (estimate): Q1 FY2027 results: start of the 2027 AI ramp. Status: Pending. Watch: AI revenue that grows from Q4 and keeps the FY2027 path to about $115 billion passes; flat AI revenue or a customer delay fails.
- 2027 (estimate): Anthropic TPU deployment grows to about 5 gigawatts. Status: Pending. Watch: Deployments on schedule, lease payments made and no draw on the backstop or convertible notes beyond plan pass; a delay or a lease default fails.

## Balance sheet

- Cash: $24.0B
- Debt: $61.1B
- Net debt: $37.1B
- EBITDA, last 12 months: $52.3B
- Net debt / EBITDA: 0.7× (low)
- Interest cover: 15×
- Undrawn credit line: $7.5B, to January 2030
- Debt due within 12 months: $2.3B
- Last debt due: 2056
- Ratings: Moody's A3 (positive outlook), S&P A- (positive outlook), Fitch BBB+ (positive outlook)

Broadcom carries debt mainly from its large purchases of software companies, most recently VMware. The balance sheet does not show two new exposures to one AI customer. First, Broadcom backs a financial partner's leases of AI racks to that customer. If the customer does not pay, Broadcom pays the difference between 85% of the amount owed and the sale value of the racks. The maximum is about $29 billion when all racks are in use. Second, that customer can issue up to $42 billion of convertible notes to Broadcom to pay for its leases. The customer had issued none of these notes at August 2, 2026. At that date, goodwill and intangible assets of $124.1 billion were about two thirds of total assets of $188.1 billion. Almost all debt was senior notes, plus $1.75 billion of fixed-rate term loans due in 2028. The $2.3 billion due within 12 months was two notes due in August and September 2026. EBITDA is for the 12 months to August 2, 2026, and is pre-tax income plus interest, depreciation and amortization. Interest cover is operating income divided by interest expense for the first three quarters of fiscal 2026. There was no commercial paper. In the same nine months, cash flow paid dividends of $9.3 billion and buybacks of $8.5 billion, and Broadcom repaid $6.1 billion of net debt. Management said that Broadcom repaid $1.5 billion more debt after the quarter. The last rating changes were upgrades in September 2025. But the customer financing ties more of the balance sheet to the AI ramp.

As of 2026-08-02.

Sources:

- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1730168/000173016826000080/avgo-20260802.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1730168/000119312526005084/d842461dfwp.htm
- https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/moodys-upgrades-broadcoms-senior-unsecured-rating-to-a3-93CH-4249439
- https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/09/09/broadcom-avgo-q3-2026-earnings-call-transcript/

## Recent events

- 2026-10-07: Bloomberg reported that Broadcom held early talks to arrange about $30 billion of debt to fund AI chips for OpenAI. The Wall Street Journal reported a figure of more than $50 billion. The talks are at an early stage, and no deal was announced.
- 2026-10-02: Bloomberg reported that banks working with Broadcom started to raise about $60 billion of debt to fund AI chips for Anthropic and other customers. Reports said the plan has a $42 billion senior secured part and an $18 billion junior part led by Blackstone. Broadcom partly supports the value of the chips in the senior part. Broadcom declined to comment, and the terms can still change.
- 2026-10-01: Reuters reported that Anthropic's confidential IPO prospectus says Broadcom agreed to lend Anthropic up to $42 billion as convertible notes. This covers about one third of a $125.2 billion five-year TPU lease. Anthropic does not expect to issue these notes before its IPO.
- 2026-09-29: Reuters reported that Anthropic's confidential IPO prospectus lists about $161.2 billion of equipment lease obligations tied to Broadcom. Most of these obligations are non-cancelable. The prospectus lists at least $518 billion of total compute commitments.
- 2026-09-02: Broadcom reported Q3 FY2026 results. Revenue was $29.59 billion, up 86% from last year. AI chip revenue was $16.7 billion, up 221% from last year.
- 2026-09-02: Management guided Q4 FY2026 revenue to about $34.8 billion. About $21.7 billion of this is AI chip revenue.
- 2026-09-02: Management said FY2027 AI chip revenue will be about $115 billion. This is about double the FY2026 number.
- 2026-09-02: Broadcom said Anthropic is on track to become its largest AI chip customer in 2027, and to stay its largest customer in 2028. Broadcom plans to deploy 1 gigawatt of Ironwood chips for Anthropic in 2026, growing to about 5 gigawatts of TPU v8i chips in 2027 and 10 more gigawatts in 2028.

## Risks

- High: Most of the fair value depends on one forecast: AI revenue reaching $115 billion in FY2027. A slower ramp would lower the fair value.
- Medium: A small number of customers buy most of the AI chips. Anthropic pays for its chips with leases that lenders fund and Broadcom partly backs, and OpenAI is in talks about a similar plan. This makes their spending less certain than spending from a customer's own cash flow.
- Medium: Broadcom can owe up to about $29 billion under its backstop of one customer's chip leases, and it can lend the same customer up to $42 billion. A problem at that customer would hurt Broadcom as a supplier and as a lender.
- Low: Broadcom competes with Nvidia in AI chips. A shift in market share could change future revenue.

## Links

- Page: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/company/AVGO/
- History of changes: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/company/AVGO/history/
- JSON with full history: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/data/company/AVGO.json

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