# Atmos Energy (ATO) Sector: Natural gas distribution | Field | Value | |---|---| | Price | $167.34 | | Fair value (Analysts) | $170.00 | | Discount to fair value | 1.6% | | Fair value uncertainty (Analysts) | Low | | Economic moat (Analysts) | Narrow | | LSEG analyst rating (1 strong buy to 5 strong sell) | 2.71 | | Data as of | 2026-10-16 | | Next earnings | 2026-11-04 (confirmed) | ## In short The market prices Atmos as a safe gas utility that must keep issuing shares and debt, and a new five-year plan in November 2026 with fair rate outcomes in Texas can close the gap. ## Themes and gap - Themes: Interest rates (interest-rates), Regulation and courts (regulation-legal), Power and energy (power-energy) - Gap type: Can close (closable) - Why: The fiscal 2026 report and the new five-year plan on November 4, 2026 and the next rate decisions show whether earnings growth continues at the planned rate. ## About Atmos Energy is a natural gas-only distribution utility. It delivers gas to about 3.4 million customers in more than 1,400 communities in eight states, mostly in Texas and the South. It also owns one of the largest intrastate gas pipeline systems in Texas, with storage. Atmos earns a regulated return on the money it invests in pipes and other assets, and more than 85% of its capital spending is for safety and reliability. Its fiscal year ends on September 30. Rate mechanisms in Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Tennessee let it update rates every year without a full rate case. ## Thesis The market prices Atmos as a safe utility whose growth depends on large capital spending that it must pay for with new shares and debt. Atmos expects capital spending of about $4.2 billion in fiscal 2026, and it completed about $2.2 billion of debt and equity financing in the first nine months. Higher interest rates make this financing more costly and make utility shares less attractive than bonds. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Regulators, mostly in Texas, must keep approving rate increases that recover the spending, as they did with $355.0 million of annualized outcomes in the first nine months of fiscal 2026. Earnings per share must grow in line with the plan, after the fiscal 2026 guidance of $8.40 to $8.50. The equity share of capital must stay near 60%, so that credit quality stays strong. The fiscal 2026 report on November 4, 2026, with fiscal 2027 guidance and a five-year plan to fiscal 2031, gives the main test. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next two to four quarters. The main reason it may not close is a rise in interest rates, which lowers the value of all utility shares. ## Checkpoints - Nov 4, 2026: Fiscal 2026 results and five-year plan. Status: Pending. Watch: Fiscal 2026 EPS within $8.40 to $8.50, fiscal 2027 guidance with growth near the plan and a five-year plan with steady rate base growth pass; lower guidance or a weaker equity share fail. - Feb 4, 2027 (estimate): Fiscal Q1 2027 earnings: rate outcomes. Status: Pending. Watch: New rate outcomes in Texas and other states in line with the plan pass; a large rate case denial or a cut in guidance fails. ## Balance sheet - Cash: $521M - Debt: $10.3B - Net debt: $9.7B - Undrawn credit line: $3.1B - Debt due within 12 months: $503M - Last debt due: 2056 Atmos has a strong investment grade balance sheet. At June 30, 2026, long-term debt was $9.75 billion and current maturities were $503 million, so total debt was $10.25 billion. Cash was $521.0 million, and there was no short-term debt. The equity share of total capitalization was 59.8%. Total liquidity was about $4.6 billion, with $936.8 million of proceeds still available from forward sales of shares and $3.09 billion of unused credit facilities. The main $1.5 billion facility now matures on March 28, 2031. After June 30, 2026, Atmos issued $700 million of 6.000% notes due 2036 on October 9, 2026. It also has an at-the-market program for new shares, with $506.5 million still available at June 30, 2026. Its longest notes mature in 2056. As of 2026-06-30. Sources: - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/731802/000073180226000102/ato-20260630.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/731802/000073180226000100/ato20260805exhibit991.htm - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/731802/000119312526419084/d174816d8k.htm ## Recent events - 2026-10-09: Atmos completed a public offering of $700 million of 6.000% senior notes due 2036. Net proceeds were about $691 million. - 2026-10-06: Atmos said it will report fiscal 2026 results on November 4, 2026, after the market closes. On the call on November 5, 2026, it plans to give fiscal 2027 guidance and update its five-year plan to fiscal 2031. - 2026-08-10: Atmos said that John S. McDill, Senior Vice President of Utility Operations, will retire in early 2027. Jeff D. Martinez became Senior Vice President of Utility Operations on October 1, 2026. James H. Jeffries IV joined the board on September 1, 2026. - 2026-08-05: Atmos reported fiscal Q3 2026 results. Net income for the first nine months was $1.2 billion, or $7.33 per diluted share, up from $1.02 billion. Capital spending was $3.1 billion. Atmos reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 guidance of $8.40 to $8.50 per diluted share and declared a quarterly dividend of $1.00 per share. - 2026-06-18: Atmos completed a public offering of $700 million of 4.750% senior notes due 2032. ## Risks - Medium: Atmos needs regular rate increases to recover its large capital spending. A less favorable decision from regulators in Texas or another state can lower returns. Most of its operations are in Texas. - Medium: Atmos issues new shares and debt every year to pay for its spending. Higher interest rates raise its financing costs and make the shares less attractive to investors who want income. - Low: Gas pipelines can leak or explode, and an accident can cause injuries, fines and repair costs. Federal and state safety rules can also raise costs. - Low: Laws or local rules that limit new gas connections or favor electric heating can slow customer growth over time. ## Links - Page: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/company/ATO/ - History of changes: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/company/ATO/history/ - JSON with full history: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/data/company/ATO.json > Picks is a personal record of stock picks. It gives information only, not financial, investment, tax or legal advice. Prices, fair values and ratings can be delayed or wrong; check the original source. Full disclaimer: /disclaimer/.