# Amcor (AMCR)

Sector: Consumer packaging

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $43.74 |
| Fair value (Analysts) | $60.00 |
| Discount to fair value | 27.1% |
| Fair value uncertainty (Analysts) | Medium |
| Economic moat (Analysts) | Narrow |
| LSEG analyst rating (1 strong buy to 5 strong sell) | 2.21 |
| Data as of | 2026-10-16 |
| Next earnings | 2026-11-12 (estimate) |

## In short

The market doubts that the Berry combination will give growth and lower debt, and synergies with leverage of 3.5 to 3.6 times at the end of 2026 can close the gap.

## Themes and gap

- Themes: High debt (leverage), Weak consumer (weak-consumer)
- Gap type: Can close (closable)
- Why: The leverage result at December 31, 2026, and the next quarterly reports show whether synergies and cash flow reduce the debt.

## About

Amcor makes packaging for food, drinks, health care, beauty and home care products. It makes flexible packaging, rigid plastic containers, cartons, closures and dispensing systems. It reports two main segments: Global Flexible Packaging Solutions and Global Rigid Packaging Solutions. Amcor combined with Berry Global on April 30, 2025, which made net sales $23.5 billion in the year to June 30, 2026. It has about 75,000 employees and about 400 sites in more than 40 countries. Amcor sells to large consumer goods and health care companies and passes most changes in resin and other raw material costs to its customers. Its shares trade on the NYSE and as CDIs on the ASX.

## Thesis

The market doubts that the Berry combination will give Amcor growth and lower debt. Volumes are flat, raw material costs rose fast, and leverage is high. In FY2026, volumes and price/mix together reduced net sales by about 2%, and in Q4 volumes grew only about 0.5%. Free cash flow was $1.3 billion, less than the guidance of $1.5 billion to $1.6 billion that Amcor gave on May 6, 2026. Net debt was $12.9 billion at June 30, 2026. So investors price Amcor as a slow-growing packager with too much debt. For the gap to close, four things must be true. Berry synergies must continue on plan; they were about $100 million in Q4 FY2026 and about $240 million in FY2026. Volumes must grow and price increases must cover the higher input costs. Leverage must reach 3.5 to 3.6 times at December 31, 2026, as guided, and fall further in 2027. Amcor must make progress on the sale or restructuring of non-core businesses with about $2.5 billion of sales, of which about $500 million is done or in process. The first evidence comes with the report for the quarter to September 30, 2026, estimated for about November 12, 2026. The report for the six-month transition period to December 31, 2026, in early 2027, shows the leverage result. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters.

## Checkpoints

- Nov 12, 2026 (estimate): Results for the quarter to September 30, 2026. Status: Pending. Watch: Positive volumes, synergies on plan and progress toward adjusted EPS of $1.80 to $1.90 for the transition period pass; falling volumes or a cut to the guidance fail.
- Feb 15, 2027 (estimate): Transition period results: leverage at December 31, 2026. Status: Pending. Watch: Leverage of 3.5 to 3.6 times or lower and guidance for calendar 2027 with EPS growth pass; higher leverage fails.
- Jun 30, 2027 (estimate): Non-core portfolio sales. Status: Pending. Watch: Agreements to sell or restructure most of the non-core businesses with about $2.5 billion of sales pass; little progress fails.

## Balance sheet

- Cash: $1.1B
- Debt: $14.0B
- Net debt: $12.9B
- EBITDA, last 12 months: $3.7B
- Net debt / EBITDA: 3.5× (medium)
- Interest cover: 3.1×
- Debt due within 12 months: $150M

Amcor funds itself with senior notes, commercial paper and bank loans. At June 30, 2026, debt was $14.01 billion: $135 million of short-term debt, $15 million of current long-term debt and $13.86 billion of long-term debt. Cash and cash equivalents were $1.12 billion, and net debt was $12.90 billion. EBITDA is adjusted EBITDA for FY2026, which includes Berry for the full year. Interest cover is GAAP operating income divided by net interest expense for FY2026. Amcor guided leverage of 3.5 to 3.6 times at December 31, 2026, measured as net debt divided by 12-month adjusted EBITDA plus share-based compensation. Three agencies rate the debt investment grade. Amcor had no share buyback program in FY2026 and pays a quarterly dividend of 65.0 cents per share. The figures are the last annual balance sheet before the change to a December year end.

As of 2026-06-30.

Sources:

- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1748790/000174879026000020/amcor4q2026ex991-june302026.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1748790/000174879026000022/amcr-20260630.htm

## Recent events

- 2026-09-29: Amcor set its 2026 annual meeting of shareholders for November 11, 2026. Shareholders will vote on a new 2026 Omnibus Management Share Plan, among other items.
- 2026-08-12: Amcor reported FY2026 results. Net sales rose 57% to $23.5 billion, mainly because of Berry. Net income was $1,106 million, adjusted EBITDA was $3,673 million and adjusted EPS rose 13% to $4.02. Free cash flow was $1,303 million and net debt was $12,897 million. For the six months to December 31, 2026, Amcor guided adjusted EPS of $1.80 to $1.90 and leverage of 3.5 to 3.6 times. It raised the quarterly dividend to 65.0 cents per share.
- 2026-08-11: Amcor's board accepted the resignation of PwC Switzerland as auditor at the request of the audit committee and appointed PwC US, effective August 14, 2026.
- 2026-06-15: Amcor appointed Ryan Yost, formerly of Avery Dennison, as President of Global Flexible Packaging Solutions, and Kate Pearlman, formerly of Lowe's, as Senior Vice President for Investor Relations and Treasury.
- 2026-05-06: Amcor reported Q3 FY2026 results. Net sales rose 77% to $5,914 million, synergies were $77 million and adjusted EPS rose 6% to $0.96. Amcor cut its FY2026 free cash flow guidance to $1.5 billion to $1.6 billion and gave adjusted EPS guidance of $3.98 to $4.03. It had six divestiture agreements under its portfolio program.
- 2026-05-01: Amcor's board changed the fiscal year end from June 30 to December 31. Amcor will report a six-month transition period from July 1 to December 31, 2026, and calendar years from 2027.

## Risks

- High: Debt is high after the Berry combination. Net debt was $12.9 billion at June 30, 2026, and net interest expense was $610 million in FY2026. Free cash flow of $1.3 billion was below the guidance of May 2026. If cash flow stays weak, leverage falls more slowly and a rating downgrade could raise costs.
- Medium: Raw material costs rose fast in 2026, and the CEO called the input cost inflation unprecedented. Amcor passes most resin cost changes to customers, but with a delay. Price/mix reduced comparable net sales by about 1% in Q4 FY2026.
- Medium: Volumes depend on consumer demand for packaged goods. In FY2026, volumes and price/mix together reduced net sales by about 2%. Weak consumer spending would slow growth.
- Medium: Amcor reviews non-core businesses with about $2.5 billion of sales for sale or restructuring. Only about $500 million is done or in process. The review can take time, cost money and distract management.

## Links

- Page: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/company/AMCR/
- History of changes: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/company/AMCR/history/
- JSON with full history: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/data/company/AMCR.json

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