# Autodesk (ADSK)

Sector: Design & engineering software

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $243.32 |
| Fair value (Analysts) | $268.00 |
| Discount to fair value | 9.2% |
| Fair value uncertainty (Analysts) | Medium |
| Economic moat (Analysts) | Wide |
| LSEG analyst rating (1 strong buy to 5 strong sell) | 1.87 |
| Data as of | 2026-10-15 |
| Next earnings | 2026-11-27 (estimate) |

## In short

Investors fear that AI design tools reduce the seats Autodesk sells, and billings that meet guidance with stable seat counts over the next three to five quarters can close the gap.

## Themes and gap

- Themes: AI disruption risk (ai-disruption), High debt (leverage)
- Gap type: Can close (closable)
- Why: The next two to four quarterly reports show whether billings and seats hold against AI design tools.

## About

Autodesk makes design and engineering software. Architects, engineers, builders, manufacturers and film studios use its products, such as AutoCAD, Revit, Inventor, Fusion and Maya. It sells almost all of its software as subscriptions, so most revenue repeats each year. In fiscal 2026, which ended on January 31, 2026, revenue was $7.2 billion and free cash flow was $2.4 billion. Its largest product family is AECO (architecture, engineering, construction and operations), with $1.03 billion of the $2.05 billion of revenue in Q2 fiscal 2027. The other families are AutoCAD and AutoCAD LT, manufacturing (MFG) and media and entertainment (M&E). In August 2026, Autodesk bought MaintainX, a maintenance and operations software company, for about $3.6 billion in cash. This is its largest purchase.

## Thesis

Autodesk trades at a discount because investors fear that AI tools can make 3D models without its software and reduce the number of paid seats. On September 3, 2026, OpenAI released GPT-6 Astra, a model that can turn photos and drawings into CAD models. In late September 2026, Piper Sandler cut its price target and named the risk that AI commoditizes the interface or reduces seats. A second concern is Autodesk's own numbers: in Q2 fiscal 2027, revenue grew 16%, but billings grew only 10% and total remaining performance obligations grew only 2%, because Autodesk gives fewer discounts for multi-year contracts. The $3.6 billion MaintainX purchase also added $2.0 billion of short-term borrowing. For the gap to close, Autodesk must reach its fiscal 2027 guidance of $8.575 to $8.650 billion of billings and about $2.7 billion of free cash flow, current remaining performance obligations must keep growing near 12%, and its own AI features must add revenue instead of replacing seats. MaintainX must also keep its growth while Autodesk repays the commercial paper and the term loan. The first test is the Q3 fiscal 2027 report, expected in late November 2026. The second test is the Q4 report and the fiscal 2028 guidance, expected in late February 2027. If billings and seat counts hold, the gap can close over the next three to five quarters. The main risk is that AI design tools take seats from AutoCAD and Fusion faster than Autodesk can sell AI features.

## Checkpoints

- Nov 27, 2026 (estimate): Q3 fiscal 2027 results: billings and seats. Status: Pending. Watch: Revenue at or above the $2.125 to $2.140 billion guidance, current remaining performance obligations that still grow near 12%, and unchanged fiscal 2027 billings guidance pass; lower billings guidance or signs of fewer seats fail.
- Feb 2027 (estimate): Q4 fiscal 2027 results and fiscal 2028 guidance. Status: Pending. Watch: Free cash flow of about $2.7 billion for fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2028 guidance with double-digit billings growth pass; guidance that shows slower subscription growth from AI tools fails.
- Aug 2027 (estimate): Term loan repayment after MaintainX. Status: Pending. Watch: Repayment or refinancing of the $1.0 billion term loan from cash flow, with buybacks still running, passes; a need to raise long-term debt to repay it fails.

## Balance sheet

- Cash: $4.2B
- Debt: $3.5B
- Net cash: $655M
- Undrawn credit line: $2.0B, to May 2030
- Debt due within 12 months: $1.5B
- Last debt due: 2035

At July 31, 2026, Autodesk had $4.1 billion of cash and $259 million of marketable securities, of which $202 million were long term. Debt was $2.5 billion of senior notes and $1.0 billion of commercial paper at a weighted-average rate of 4.17%. The notes pay fixed rates of 2.40% to 5.30% and are due from June 2027 to June 2035. The $500 million of 3.50% notes due in June 2027 and the commercial paper are due within 12 months. On August 3, 2026, after the balance sheet date, Autodesk drew a $1.0 billion 364-day term loan and paid about $3.6 billion in cash for MaintainX. Its cash fell and its debt rose to about $4.5 billion. The $2.0 billion revolving credit facility was not drawn at July 31, 2026, and it ends in May 2030, but commercial paper reduces the amount that is free to borrow. Free cash flow was $2.4 billion in fiscal 2026, and management guides $2.725 to $2.750 billion for fiscal 2027. In the six months to July 31, 2026, Autodesk bought back $901 million of its stock.

As of 2026-07-31.

Sources:

- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/769397/000076939726000059/q227pressrelease.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000769397/000076939726000061/adsk-20260731.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/769397/000121390026068533/ea0294709-8k_autodesk.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/769397/000076939726000010/q426pressrelease.htm

## Recent events

- 2026-09-28: Piper Sandler kept its Overweight rating but cut its price target to $300 from $338. It said that AI could commoditize the interface or reduce seats at Autodesk, after OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra release.
- 2026-09-24: UBS kept its Buy rating and its $325 target after more than 25 industry conversations. It found no sign that AI displaces core CAD systems and said that most industry participants see Autodesk as a net beneficiary of AI.
- 2026-09-03: OpenAI released GPT-6 Astra, a model that can build CAD models from photos and drawings. OpenAI reported a score of 95.9% on the BenchCAD benchmark. Users connected it to Autodesk Inventor and Fusion.
- 2026-08-27: Autodesk reported Q2 fiscal 2027 results. Revenue was $2.05 billion, up 16%, and billings were $1.85 billion, up 10%. The non-GAAP operating margin was 41%. Free cash flow was $561 million. Current remaining performance obligations grew 12%, but total remaining performance obligations grew only 2%, because Autodesk gives fewer multi-year discounts. Autodesk raised its fiscal 2027 revenue guidance to $8.295 to $8.345 billion, including MaintainX.
- 2026-08-03: Autodesk completed its purchase of MaintainX for about $3.6 billion in cash. It drew a $1.0 billion 364-day term loan on the same day, at a weighted-average rate of 4.58%, and also used $1.0 billion of commercial paper and its own cash.
- 2026-06-15: Autodesk signed a $1.0 billion delayed-draw term loan to fund MaintainX and raised its revolving credit facility from $1.5 billion to $2.0 billion. In July 2026, it also started a commercial paper program of up to $2.0 billion.
- 2026-05-28: Autodesk reported Q1 fiscal 2027 results. Revenue was $1.93 billion, up 18%. It raised its fiscal 2027 guidance and agreed to buy MaintainX, which expected more than $135 million of annual recurring revenue in 2026.

## Risks

- High: AI models such as OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra, released on September 3, 2026, can make CAD models from photos and text. If customers need fewer seats, or cheaper AI tools replace AutoCAD and Fusion for simple work, Autodesk's subscription revenue can grow more slowly.
- Medium: Billings grew only 10% and total remaining performance obligations grew only 2% in Q2 fiscal 2027, while revenue grew 16%. Autodesk says that fewer multi-year discounts cause this. If the gap stays after the change ends, it can mean slower demand.
- Medium: MaintainX cost about $3.6 billion, Autodesk's largest purchase. It expected more than $135 million of annual recurring revenue in 2026, so the price depends on fast growth for many years. A failed integration can lead to a write-down.
- Medium: Autodesk is in the last phase of a sales reorganization. In January 2026, it said it will cut about 1,000 jobs, about 7% of its staff, mostly in sales, by the end of fiscal 2027. Changes in how it sells can disrupt renewals and new sales.
- Low: About 56% of revenue came from outside the Americas in Q2 fiscal 2027. A stronger US dollar lowers reported revenue, and lower construction and manufacturing activity can reduce demand for new seats.

## Links

- Page: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/company/ADSK/
- History of changes: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/company/ADSK/history/
- JSON with full history: https://picks.kamadorueda.com/data/company/ADSK.json

> Picks is a personal record of stock picks. It gives information only, not financial, investment, tax or legal advice. Prices, fair values and ratings can be delayed or wrong; check the original source. Full disclaimer: /disclaimer/.